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Old 12-01-2002, 10:30 PM
MSchmahl MSchmahl is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 11
Default Re: Secrets of Poker #2

A player who would raise all-in with Axs might also have an underpair. And larger pocket pairs seem a relatively small subset of the universe of hands that "wild all-in raiser" might have.

Let's assume for argument's sake that WAIR would make the same play with any pocket pair, any suited ace, and AJ/AQ/AK.
<pre><font class="small">code:</font><hr>
22 -55 : 24 hands; 80% equity, win 19.2
66 : 1 hand ; 50% equity, win 0.5
77 -AA : 48 hands; 20% equity, win 9.6
A2s-A5s: 16 hands; 65% equity, win 10.4
A6s: 2 hands; 65% equity, win 1.3
A7s-AKs: 28 hands; 50% equity, win 14.0
AJo-AKo: 36 hands; 55% equity, win 19.8
Total 155 hands win 74.8
</pre><hr>
Which comes out to about 48%.

There were $3.00 in the pot before the WAIR went all-in for $52 from the BB, so you're risking $52 to win $107 ($51.60 equity), so I have to agree that a call is just on the border of not being correct -- assuming you know you'll be the only caller. The possibility that someone may overcall with a good hand pushes this easily into the "fold" category unless you are in the SB.

But I think 77 is good enough.

Of course if you increase or decrease the number of big cards or underpairs WAIR would play, this changes the result significantly.
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