[kurosh]

I might as well analyze my own post because I'm bored and I've wanted to do this kind of analysis for a while.

Range of hands I put him on: 44, KQ, AJh, JTh, A4h.

Likelihood: KQ 50%
JTh 20%
44 15%
AJh 10%
A4h 5%


Why that distribution? A pure bluff is pretty much out of the question as he's not a maniac. QQ, KK and AK would be reraised PF. Those are the only other reasonable hands a person with those stats would call with. KQ is the most likely because the others are mostly draws and when he's in position, I don't think he'd cap with a draw. He would play a set of 4's exactly like that but purely based on the probability of flopping a set and it's a shady call PF, it's less likely. A4h, AJh, JTh would depend on the player. Many would not call with A4h PF but he is a bit loose and that is why it is less likely. AJh is a strong draw but still a draw so I dont know if he would cap with it. JTh is a huge draw and would probably be capped.

KQ 50% - 7 outs on the turn
JTh 20% - (2J, 3T, 3A, 8h) He has 16 outs
44 15% - 4 outs
AJh 10% - (2J, 9h) He has 11 outs to win and 3 to split.
A4h 5% - (2fours, 9h) He has 11 outs to win and 3 to split.

(7/46)*.5 + (30/46)*.2 + (4/46)*.15 + (35/46)*.1 + (35/46)*.05 = .3337

(3/46)*.1 + (3/46)*.05 = .00326

33.37% to win. .326% to split.

I don't think there is any folding equity on the turn and I am behind most of the time so raising is a no. I am getting 9.33:1 with a 2:1 chance of winning. Easy call down. I think I played it correctly.

(This is my first time analyzing a hand this in depth. If you see any mistakes please point them out.)