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Old 01-25-2005, 02:12 AM
ChrisV ChrisV is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 339
Default Re: push or fold under 10 bb\'s rule

QT is a decent hand, it has an equity of about .41 against typical raising ranges. I ran the numbers and it comes out to a net loss of around 340 chips if you always call. This compares favourably with the 1600 I win when you fold.

$31 versus $30 might sound insignificant, but given that $20 of that is locked away already, it's effectively a 10% increase in your win. Or to put it another way, at $200 tourneys, where I play, that same increase would be an increase of $20. My ITM is somewhere around 37% so if I could make a gain like this every final three it would be an extra $7.40 per tourney, or about $37/hr. Good poker is all about pushing these small edges.

In final three it isn't just gambles for all your chips you want to avoid, it's any kind of confrontation at all. It's precisely because I want to avoid confrontations that I'm pushing, because against a typically aggressive player just like me, I can make him fold fully 40% of the hands he would otherwise have reraised allin. That I didn't gamble all my chips isn't very comforting when I've lost over a third of my stack.

If you think you're up against timid players who will only reraise big pairs and so forth, then go nuts raising 1000. Note that even against such a player, if I give them say AA-66, AK, AQ, AJ only, in other words entirely hands that dominate you, your chip gain from folding is pretty small - 235 chips. If you want to move up past the 10's at some point I think it's better to not chase small gains like that and instead learn strategies that will serve you well against other good, aggressive players.
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