[PokerBabe(aka)]

Hi Warren- glad you enjoyed the books and learned from them. I think that good discipline, knowledge and solid decision making abilities are required in both poker and trading. A computer can make "correct" decisions about poker and trading based on "technical" data, but I doubt if a machine can "read" players or get a "feel" for trading. [img]/forums/images/icons/ooo.gif[/img] For example, Stu Ungar was known for his excellent "reads". This skill is crucial at the highest poker limits. Can a computer duplicate Stuey's decision making process in this area? I really don't know. Perhaps the computer will "modify" it's play based on patterns it picks up from opponents, rather than simply playing "by the book". Perhaps the computer can pick off a bluff after observing certain patterns of play. I would like to get a computer expert's opinion of whether a machine can be programmed to "read" (and beat) the best poker players. Al knows of a lady who is working on this right now, and he might provide more explanation. I'm sure that Mason has an opinion on this as well.


As for the market, there are already numerous programs and technical systems for trading. These simply run off what is happening (and HAS happened) in the market but are notoriously poor at predicting the future! [img]/forums/images/icons/crazy.gif[/img] I had this discussion just the other day with Barry T. about how technical analysis is ex post facto. As an example, consider the current market. Every prior bear market was different than the one we are in now. They started for different reasons, lasted for different amounts of time and were different in severity. Sure, we can look back and say ....YUP...there is the bottom. We can look back at the July 23 lows of this year and say....ok...now we are "retesting" them. This "should" be bullish from a "technical perspective", etc. BUT those support levels mean nothing when a very HUMAN event occurs and emotion runs the market. You can throw the computer right out the window when you get a currency collapse, an unexpected interest rate hike, a presidential assasination, a terrorist attack, etc. If you ever watch CNBC, you are familiar with a guy named Art Cashin. If you listen to Art he will often tell you about how the floor "feels". He will mention how he "thinks" the market will act as the day progresses. He will talk about the "trader activity" (how fast they are walking around, for example). He mentions "taking the pulse" of the market, etc. After many years on the floor, he has a "sense" of what is going on. Can a computer duplicate Art's "touchy-feeley" knowledge of the market? I really don't think so. [img]/forums/images/icons/tongue.gif[/img] . A friend of mine who worked on the CBOE floor once told me that when someone is vomiting in the restroom, go in the direction opposite the market! Can a computer do THAT type of analysis? Hmmmm.....

If I was pressed to give a simple yes or no answer, I would say that a computer may someday beat any one great individual poker player heads up, but not 8 of them at a time. Similarly, I think a computer can trade via various technical systems, but could never ever duplicate Art Cashin's "touchy-feely" analysis of the stock market action or my pal's "vomiting index"!. [img]/forums/images/icons/tongue.gif[/img] LGPG, Babe