Help with odds vs. multiple draws
An attempt at mathematical analysis...
As someone else already posted, vs. 2 live flush draws, this Aces up hand is about even money. When you add two other drawing hands, and given that there are two cards our of 40 that make your boat (One Ace, One King, setting aside the odds of runner-runner-runner trips to make a boat) for odds of 19-to-1 against, shouldn't this be a fold based on pot odds?
Before you call on 4th, you've only invested $15 (ante+bring-in) into this pot. If you call on 4th, you're putting 150 into a pot of 480.
Of course, you will win this hand without improvement X amount of times -- I can't figure out what X is, which is the crucial part of this equation. But against two live flush draws, possibly a couple of live two-pair draws, maybe trip threes, and given your relatively minor investment, this seems like a pretty clear fold. Unless I'm underestimating the number of times you'll win with no improvement.
What do you think? [img]/forums/images/icons/confused.gif[/img]
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