I decided to wait till the turn to raise, but then the flush card came and scared me. I think I slowed down too much but I'm not sure what the best line is. I have some more thoughts below (feel free to read or ignore them when responding)....
Also, could you answer the question for
Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed)
converter
Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG folds, Hero calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, Hero calls.
Flop: (6.33 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.
Turn: (6.16 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.
River: (9.16 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks, CO checks.
Final Pot: 9.16 BB
I think the best line would have been to raise the turn. I cannot fold to a re-raise (because I'd have odds to draw to a boat), but I could fold the river unimproved. The total risk for this line seems to be 2BB. However, if CO does have the flush, he might very well smooth call my turn raise and raise me again when I bet the river, as he's a good player. So I could easily be risking 3 BB.
The upside is harder to calculate. The times CO and BB are still on draws (str8 draws or single spade draws) I gain at least 2 BB and possibly more if they call a river bet with, say, a pocket pair, not unlikely for CO. This assumes they don't improve though. Also, I will improve to a boat sometimes when I'm beat, and in those cases I stand to win at least 4BB and possibly more.
So calculating the risk/reward for this line correctly is not easy. My
gut tells me it's the best line. But a rigorous analysis would take the weighted average for all possibilities into account -- something I can't do in my head.
On the other hand, betting the river and folding to a raise is somewhere between a 1:1 and 1:2 shot.
In any case, I'm curious what others think of my analysis. Am I missing anything?
TIA,
gm