[BruceZ]

[ QUOTE ]
merry christmas everyone!!

i was hoping if someone could tell me which is more likely to happen:
1.) you flop a set with your pocket pair

[/ QUOTE ]

2*48*44*3/(50*49*48) = 1 in 9.3

This is for a set only, not including full house or quads.


[ QUOTE ]
or
2.) you get a combo flop with a suited connector,meaning that i will flop a flush draw with either a pair or a straight draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

6*C(11,2) = 330 flops with a pair + flush draw

3*(39-6-6) + 3*6*(10-2) = 225 flops with a straight draw + flush draw

For example, with JTs, there are 3 pairs of ranks that give the straight draw (98, Q9, KQ). The first term is for the 3 of these that are suited (straight flush draws), then of the remaining 39 off-suit cards, we exclude 6 that complete the straight, and 6 that make a pair which we already counted in the first case. The second term is for 3*6 of the (98, Q9, KQ) with exactly 1 suited card. Then there are (10-2) suited cards that do not complete the straight. The total probability then is:

(330 + 225) / C(50,3) = 1 in 35.3.

So flopping a set is much more likely. Even if we include straight draw + pair, this would add an additional 3*15*6 = 270 flops (not 3*16*6 since we already counted the straight flush draws), and this would bring the probability to 1 in 23.8. So the set is still much more likely.