Re: 3/6 hand
This isn't a bad flop at all. Since MP1 is a TAG, you're losing to AA (6), KK (3), QQ (6), JJ (6), TT (3), and ATs (3). You're killing AK (12), KQ (12), KJs (3), and 99 (6), and you're ahead against AQ (16) and AJ (16).
So, you're losing to 27 hands and you're beating 64 hands.
You're a 2.37:1 _favorite_ to currently have the better hand. I realize it's absurd to calculate this at the table, but precision isn't needed here. It should be clear that you have a strong chance to be the favorite on the flop.
Raise the flop. If you get 3-bet, just call. He could be 3-betting with overcards to force out MP3.
Incidentally, the river strongly suggests KK, QQ, or JJ. But you don't know that on the flop. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
N.B.: A couple things to keep in mind: HU or 3-way, many TAGs will bet the flop with AK and AQ no matter what hits. AK and AQ comprise up to 32 hands. If you're reverse dominating either of these (say, with KQ, or in this case, KT), there's a very good chance that you're currently ahead and they're drawing to at most 6 outs. Nearly every time a TAG seems to be betting the flop with AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, or 99 (36 combinations), they're betting AK or AQ instead (32 combinations).
Don't fear the high pocket pairs. Raise that flop. (And...if MP3 called with 98s, you need to make him pay for his draw. If he's holding a seven...sorry. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img])
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