Re: Value bet the turn?
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if you even knock out even one player you probably raise your pot equity by 10 percent or more.
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In order for you to gain equity from the pot, you've got to be in one of three situations:
1) You have a hand that's ahead *right now*, but can lose to river cards that improve your opponents to a hand better than yours (You hold TT vs. KJ with a board of 2579).
2) You and your opponents are both second place or worse, but when you hit your out, it improves your opponent to a hand better than yours (you hold QJ vs. KJ on a 55T board and someone else holds a medium pocket pair - you "clean up" your J outs if he folds).
3) You knock out a better hand (this doesn't happen very often).
In this situation, it looks as if Hero is very likely *not* in first (ace high isn't a likely winner here), but his outs are almost certainly clean (the only possibility is AQ or AK from either the button or SB, but only the button has a reasonable chance of folding for one more bet anyway.)
I don't think Hero can get another 10% equity from this pot by folding someone out. He cleans up 2 outs *IF* the button has AQ or AK and *IF* the button folds to a bet and *IF* Hero isn't check-raised by SB when SB has a better hand. Those 2 outs correspond to less than 10% of the possible river cards (2/44 = 4.5%, ASSUMING that we know only one holds AQ or AK).
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