Re: the odds of flopping a set
Dave,
Yes, your river answer is correct.
As far as mental process, I think you're getting it. There's no magic formula except for seeing lots of problems solved -- after that, you'll start to see recurring patterns.
With poker calculations, I would say there are easily less than 10 "types" of problems, all requiring only basic combinatorics. Just keep messing around with problems, and they'll get easier and easier. I can already tell you know alot more than you did after your first post.
gm
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