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Old 05-01-2002, 03:49 PM
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Default Re: My WSOP $2K NLHE Bustout Hand



Choice A is insane.


Choice D means you check and fold on two out of three flops, and make almost nothing on the rest of them (Max Stern probably isn't paying you off when a king flops, and certainly not when an ace flops). Also, you risk flopping top pair when Max flops a set, in which case you lose all your chips. Still, the pot is offering you 3-1, and the odds against your liking the flop are about 2-1, so this is likely a profitable play. But I don't think it's your best choice.


I don't know what Max is up to with this minimum raise, but I have a real hand. I'm all-in. No way I'm letting him see a flop if he has a small or medium pair, or suited connectors, or even a weak ace.


And I don't want to make it 1800 either. There are two problems with this. 1) If he reraises I have to call, and 2) He's much more likely to call (or reraise) with medium pairs if I make it 1800.


If I move in, Max Stern probably won't call me with TT or JJ. He may even fold QQ (although that's unlikely given his stack size). Let's reasonably say he folds anything but QQ, KK, AA, and AK there. Even if he needed AJ or better to raise, that leaves you with an 80 percent chance that Max will fold. Not only that, 5 out of 7 times that he calls, you'll be up against QQ of AK, where you are essentially a coin flip. The only time you're really in trouble is when he has AA, which is less than a 3 percent shot.


The downside to moving in, of course, is that it increases your chances of going broke. But that's a risk I'm willing to take with AKs. Moving in increases your chances of winning the pot, and increases your EV.


I vote for B.


Matt
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