Good points, though I would amend one of them :


"Even if you know for sure that your opponent holds an ace, you still run a 1/6 chance that he will hit his kicker"


Yes, but if he has any Ace, then half the time hitting his kicker is no good !


It depends to a large extent what your opponent is going to do in the various situations : if you reraise pre-flop, if you bet into him on the flop when he misses or catches a small piece, and if you check on the flop when he misses.


If you reraise pre-flop let's do some quick sums. Blinds 100-200, he makes it 600 to go, you could then put in 2000 (1400 more) sounds about right. You are betting 2000 to win 900 and so if he folds more than 69% of the time you can make the raise with any 2 - and that's not even including the pots you can win when he calls you. So there is an element of Sklansky's "Don't turn AQ into 72" at work here, if your opponent will fold enough hands you can raise with 72, but with AQ or similar you might like to call rather than open yourself up to a re-reraise. Depends whether you think a medium pair is good enough.


One more point is that as you say it is different if you are sure the button will bet when checked to - a lot of my opponents will do exactly that.


So I think we should say that calling is a possibility depending on your opponent, and your opponent's play is the most important deciding factor.


Thanks,


Andy.