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Old 10-21-2004, 01:04 AM
pzhon pzhon is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 66
Default Re: Quads 9 times this month!

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Since October 1st I've played 9,980 hands so far at Party. (Half at $3/$6 and half at $5/$10 6m).

Anyway, I've had quads a NINE (9) times in that span!

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You counted a case of quads on the board, so I assume you accept the case of trips on the board. In that case, the probability of getting quad aces if you stay to the river is (48 choose 3)/(52 choose 7) = 1/7735 since there are (48 choose 3) ways to choose the non-aces among the seven cards. The probability that you get quads of some rank is 13/7735 = 1/595. So, in 10k hands, you should expect to see quads 16.8 times, assuming you never fold before the river. (The calculation is the same as for 7-card stud, so you can also check references on 7-card stud odds.)

That you have only gotten quads 10 times proves online poker is rigged. All winnings must be redeposited by the end of the month so they can be returned to the fish.
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