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Old 10-15-2001, 03:42 PM
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Default Re: even if a millionaire...



I rarely bet on or against the very weakest teams. These teams have some upside as often things can't get any worse. However they are wildly unpredictable because they get to being bad by making costly mistakes. How many of these mistakes they will make in a given game is hard to say. Further games with very big numbers (over 30) are really difficult to handicap since there are way too many factors involved that you just can't know for sure such as how many points the coach thinks is enough, how much he wants to play players the type that Mason mentioned, how much the losing team's coach wants to get in subs. This last factor is usually the most important. Subs for Nebraska are damn good players, but subs for teams like N Illinois or New Mexico State are quite a drop off below the quality of the starters. Good programs always have top talent on deck, the bad teams just get talent as it comes and they are all playing right away. They don't wait their turn to play like they do in the top programs. If the backups play for the losing teams, they are going to get crushed bad. If the starters are left out there they can usually stem the bleeding once the winning team starts bringing in its subs.
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