I think there is a fundamental error here. When you calculate your win rate for live action, you use the total money put into action each hour, about $200 in your example. However, when you buy in for $200 and play for 8 hours, you get to use those same chips over and over again, right?


Same thing for a tourney. Just because the buy-in is $10 doesn't mean that's your total action. Your advantage is based upon the chips you put into action, and the dollar value of those chips. Since you'll reuse the same chips over a few times, your advantage can't just be multiplied by $10 to calculate your average win. You need to use some number higher than $10.


An old rule-of-thumb is that a very good tourney player will win somewhere around double the average. Since the average player wins back his total entry fee (minus the vig), the very good player will win back about double. So, if the tourney is $10 + $1, the very good player might win an average of $20, for a profit of $9.


Of course, I've never seen any actual proof of this old rule-of-thumb, it's just thrown around a lot. The variance is so high compared to the win rates in tourney poker that nobody really knows (and may never know) just how well the very good player earns in the long run.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)