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Old 10-11-2004, 09:34 PM
shooter shooter is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: So. California
Posts: 7
Default Re: quantify luck for me please

OK. After hours of simulations I settled on using;
seats 1-4 = loose, aggressive, tight and average w/ premium hands over the base line Js,Ts without using a J or T,
seats 5-8 = same player profiles w/ hands inferior and no pairs,
seat 9 = tight aggressive holding exactly JsTs,
minimum of two opponents on the river, 100,000 hands- Then test 2; same parameters except seat 9 has AA and where possible seats 1-4 kept their hand (except for the two aces); Test 3, same as before except seat 9 has any two random cards- deal

Test 1 J/10 win 33.1% lose 65.2 (remainder are split)
Test 2 A/A win 56.4 lose 41.8
Test 3 random win 42.9 lose 53.2

My surprise was seat 9 had out won seats 1-4 by a huge margin with all three hands. ??? I gotta go back and study that profile hard.
Next I found a profile who was a calling station, no betting or raising, only calling to the river...I know you never met anyone like that.

With that player in seat 9 I did it all over again:

Test 1 J/10 win 23.5 lose 75.3
Test 2 A/A win 60.1 lose 38.5
Test 3 random win 25.5 lose 72.7

Again surprise, seat 9 outplayed 1-4 by a lot, not as much as tight/aggressive. A lone standout was one of the premium players did much better against the calling station.

I will have to chew on this for a while before something comes of it (after someone turns off that buzzing sound).
Right now it looks as though with four players holding high cards, they simply ate eachother....
Still don't know how to assign any of this to luck..
sorry
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