Re: what are the odds losing with quad 8s?
The problem with purely running the odds is that it'll fail to account for the hands people fold that might have qualified. I think the best way to evaluate the effective average would be to simply look at the size of the jackpot whenever it gets one. after evaluating a bunch I think you'd have a pretty accurate effective average. you can calculate the probability of it being hit at your table, and then work out the effective % of the jackpot you take each time it's hit at your table (i.e. factoring in the fact that you'll be the one beat occasionally, the one beating occasionally, and one watching occasionally, and factoring the average % assuming equal probability of being in each spot). with all that info it should be a pretty easy matter of figuring out when it's +EV to play and when it isn't.
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