I would bet you are sure.


But since no money is at risk...


Suppose we have a 10-day ordinary.


On each day, the average moves by, like, 10% times a typical 10-day move. Right?


Using the exponential - what does 2/11 - hmmm...


Okay, suppose we also used 3/(n + 2). What would be the relative variance of the two moving averages then? And what would be the variance of either, relative to the price?


Over any given number of periods, is the trendy moving average likely to have moved more, or less than the jumpy price or 1-day? Always the same amount, right?


eLROY