Regarding ML win rate.First you need to understand the times.Late 70s and early 80s.ML

was ahead of his time.He understood spreads in currencies better than the banks.We did currency arbitrage on the floor of the IMM.We had over a billion dollars in credit lines with various banks.ML would examine say the Swiss

Franc 2 month forward vs the 5 month forward.He would then buy or sell that spread in big numbers.

He was never wrong.When then Peso was devalued in the 70s one of the big banks asked him to come to trade out of the banks losing position.

The man was incredible.I can't tell you what type of income ML generated long term because I left the firm after a few years.(the arbitrage generated 35M my last year)But he and his brothers were incredible.We use to have a poker

game in the office Wednesday nights.

One night we went into one of the other brothers

"book".He was a local in the pork bellies.

On average he made 10k a day with one losing session every 10 days of about 3 or 4 k tops.

This book covered over a nine month period.

Anyway,I don't mean to belittle Buffet but I think

the number of decisions he has made are subject

to the "coin toss" analogy.I know that is not true of ML and family.