Re: What to do with TPTK here?
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Mantis, I know what you are saying. Staying with the TPTK is probably +CEV, but I am uncertain whether it is +$$.
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If weaker K's and/or flush draws call you here, than it's no doubt +$$, IMO. Sure you might face a set. But my point is that against these eager-to-bust fish, you'll be ahead significanly more times than not. That's the whole point with fish: they are getting inloved with their TP-marginal kicker, with their draws, and so on. That's my expirience at these buy-ins, at least. I don't believe in giving up significant +CEV spots in order to survive, no matter what buy-in.
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The question is whether the increase in my ITM/ROI % when the TPTK holds up make up for my ITM/ROI dropping to near 0% the times when my stack gets crippled. This early in the tournament, I'm not sure doubling my stack will increase my ITM/ROI% that much. If I average 40% ITM, will doubling my stack increase that to 45%? 50%? 60%?
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I think you are thinking too much in terms of surviving. Again, it's not simply about "doubling your stack", but rather about the odds you are getting for trying and doing so. As you phraze the question, it's irrlevant if you're 2:1 favorite, 3:2 or 3:1. I think this is crucial.
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3 people called raises on the flop. On the flop I'm facing a mini-raise (read flush draw?) and a good-sized raise (able to beat TPTK?). Are they fish or aren't they? Beats me, this is the first hand (granted, the betting patterns indicate fish).
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I think we have a different interpretation of the action in the hand. The fact that 3 players called PF mean little to me. BB flop bet (which isn't a mini-bet) could mean many things, and I would not read it as a flush draw from all things, especially since he's the PF raiser (or mini-re-raiser, actually). The good size raise indeed tells me this guy likes his hand, but can still have a big range of hands (at this buy-in) that I'm ahead of. That's how I see it. There are only 2 reasonable hands (for the PF action) that I'm dead against: 77 and 44. Very small chance of AA,KK. Much more often I'm facing KQ,KJ,KT,K9 (even worse K's sometimes), and/or naked flush-draws with tainted aces. That's how I see it.
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