Re: What to do with TPTK here?
Mantis, I know what you are saying. Staying with the TPTK is probably +CEV, but I am uncertain whether it is +$$. The question is whether the increase in my ITM/ROI % when the TPTK holds up make up for my ITM/ROI dropping to near 0% the times when my stack gets crippled. This early in the tournament, I'm not sure doubling my stack will increase my ITM/ROI% that much. If I average 40% ITM, will doubling my stack increase that to 45%? 50%? 60%?
I think I have to win this hand significantly over 50% of the time to break even EV wise. 3 people called raises on the flop. On the flop I'm facing a mini-raise (read flush draw?) and a good-sized raise (able to beat TPTK?). Are they fish or aren't they? Beats me, this is the first hand (granted, the betting patterns indicate fish).
I guess my point is that this is pretty murky situation to be gambling my tournament life on for the first hand.
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