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Limit Texas Hold'em >> Small Stakes Hold'em

Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | >> (show all)
QTip
newbie


Reged: 09/23/04
Posts: 31
Like to talk about our action on this turn
      #3451702 - 09/20/05 10:37 AM

Villian seems like he's probably read SSH one or twice. Seems like he has a clue...but that's about it.

What's your action on this turn?

Hero: AKo on button

EP limps, MP limps, I raise, blinds fold limpers call

Flop: QQ4

Checked to me, I bet, EP raises, MP folds, I call

Turn: A

Ep bets, you?


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SeaEagle
stranger


Reged: 02/24/04
Posts: 3
Re: Like to talk about our action on this turn [Re: QTip]
      #3451714 - 09/20/05 10:39 AM

Isn't this an easy WA/WB call?

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krimson
addict


Reged: 03/22/05
Posts: 559
Loc: wwdsd
Re: Like to talk about our action on this turn [Re: QTip]
      #3451743 - 09/20/05 10:43 AM

I think we're somewhat wa/wb here. I would call the turn and river, and bet if checked to.

I have a hard time not putting EP on a Q, he limped pre-flop which suggests hands like QJ, QT, as well as hands like 66-88, maybe 99 if he's a bit passive.


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crunchy1
old hand


Reged: 01/11/05
Posts: 785
Loc: Boogie Woogie!!
Re: Like to talk about our action on this turn [Re: QTip]
      #3451766 - 09/20/05 10:47 AM

I like a call. If you think he's making the flop raise with a mid-pair we don't want to shut him out on the turn. Raising anywhere from this point on is only costing us money when we're behind (assuming Villian-with-a-clue knows how to find the fold button).

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toss
veteran


Reged: 09/30/04
Posts: 1327
Loc: 2+2 Archives Digging up Gold
Re: Like to talk about our action on this turn [Re: QTip]
      #3451788 - 09/20/05 10:50 AM

I think this is an easy call too.

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QTip
newbie


Reged: 09/23/04
Posts: 31
Re: Like to talk about our action on this turn [Re: SeaEagle]
      #3451792 - 09/20/05 10:51 AM

Quote:

Isn't this an easy WA/WB call?




I really don't think so.


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Octopus
member


Reged: 05/12/04
Posts: 143
Loc: working on my dissertation
Re: Like to talk about our action on this turn [Re: QTip]
      #3451813 - 09/20/05 10:53 AM

I think the turn is a call. I think we will be lucky to get another bet from him and I think the best chance of getting it is on the river. (I think that he is quite unlikely to have a queen, by the way.)

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mdob
stranger


Reged: 01/24/05
Posts: 12
Re: Like to talk about our action on this turn [Re: QTip]
      #3451830 - 09/20/05 10:56 AM

Hmm, I think we're ahead a lot here. He'd probably raise KQ and fold QT. That, of course, leaves QJ, which he certainly could have. I also think he could have just about any pocket pair below 99/88.
I'd call the turn and raise any river, folding to a three-bet.


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toss
veteran


Reged: 09/30/04
Posts: 1327
Loc: 2+2 Archives Digging up Gold
Re: Like to talk about our action on this turn [Re: QTip]
      #3451874 - 09/20/05 11:04 AM

Quote:

Quote:

Isn't this an easy WA/WB call?




I really don't think so.




Are you thinking that he has A4 often enough that we can raise the turn?


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Octopus
member


Reged: 05/12/04
Posts: 143
Loc: working on my dissertation
Re: Like to talk about our action on this turn [Re: Octopus]
      #3451936 - 09/20/05 11:14 AM

Let me go further.

I think he has a queen a very small percentage of the time. (If he had a queen, then the most anyone without a queen (or pocket 4s) has is 2 outs and MP is almost certainly drawing essentially dead. Check-raising to drive him out would be an error. Unless there was a possible flush draw, but surely QTip would have mentioned that. )

If he does not have a queen, then he himself has no more than two outs to win (if he has a pocket pair) or three outs to tie (if he has a weaker ace) or both (if he has exactly A4). So by not raising him out right now, I am giving him something worth a bit less than half a big bet. (about 2 outs times about 8 bets implied). If I think I can win an extra bet from him on the river 50% more often than I can win the extra bet from him now then I should wait. If there is some chance he will put in two more bets, then that percentage has to be even higher.

Since I do not believe he will put two more bets in given his description (I could be wrong) and since I think he could easily bet again with a weaker ace, I think that there is a 50% chance he will put in a bet on the river and so I think we should just call the turn. If we thought he would not bet or call a bet on the river, then we should raise him out right now. (Also, if we thought it likely that he would call a raise here, we should raise. I do not.)

Edited by Octopus (09/20/05 11:35 AM)


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