David Sklansky
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Reged: 08/28/02
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With a one and two dollar blind we now know that A8offsuit in the SB, is better off moving in up to about 70 dollars more (even if the big blind saw his cards) than he would be folding. If we thus say A8 has a rating of 70 or so, what are the ratings for all other hands?
To make sure you understand, notice that 32 has a rating of one while slightly better hands have a rating of two. Thats because you are getting 3-1 if you put in one and 4-2 if you put in two.(Obviously the big blind would always call in this case). Fairly poor hands would be rated three, getting 5-3 odds. At the other extreme, two kings would have a rating of about 1000. Since it will pick up the pot unless the big blind has kings or aces and will win some of those hands too.
If someone can tell me the "rating" for all hands (I would assume with the help of a computer program), I'll send them $200 and give them credit whenever I write about those results.
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Mangatang
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Posts: 289
Loc: New Orleans
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Are these assumptions correct?
1. This is a no limit game where everyone folded to the SB (or it's a head-to-head match up between SB and BB).
2. BB will only call your raise. He will not re-raise.
3. BB has an unlimited stack (or at least big enough to cover up to SB's KK hand).
4. BB can always see your hand and will only call if his hand is better than yours.
Also, how do "we" know that A8o is worth a $70 bet?
I'm just trying to fully understand the situation.
Thanks for your help.
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Nottom
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1) yes 2) you are all-in, so re-raising is pretty pointless 3) yes 4) after you push all-in you will reveal you hand so that you will only be called by a better hand (or on the extreme low end of the scall by a hand with odds to draw out on you)
A8 was solved in the previous thread, I'd suggest checking it out if you haven't already.
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Mangatang
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karlson
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Here is what I could come up with. I noticed some slightly funny things in some other output, so these numbers might be barely off. I would expect that error to be no more than 1% or so. BTW, kudos to pokersource for making the programming easy. Anyone doing any programming for poker purposes is probably best off starting off with their classes for hand evaluation and such.
22o 49.097373 32o 1.831860 32s 2.577355 33o 67.023645 42o 1.982895 42s 2.806653 43o 2.374371 43s 3.415791 44o 84.187055 52o 2.188207 52s 3.125558 53o 2.648645 53s 3.865458 54o 3.232330 54s 4.870879 55o 101.605019 62o 2.145689 62s 3.064287 63o 2.598784 63s 3.789969 64o 3.180263 64s 4.787757 65o 3.986211 65s 6.235193 66o 119.316820 72o 2.249071 72s 3.230863 73o 2.739177 73s 4.030750 74o 3.376566 74s 5.128923 75o 4.283982 75s 6.623716 76o 5.460449 76s 8.361698 77o 140.163654 82o 2.802784 82s 4.142291 83o 3.002894 83s 4.478709 84o 3.749197 84s 5.715560 85o 4.829605 85s 7.271507 86o 6.124065 86s 9.041014 87o 7.537942 87s 11.179617 88o 166.688882 92o 3.594775 92s 5.379643 93o 4.012116 93s 6.084035 94o 4.359892 94s 6.611112 95o 5.672884 95s 8.300009 96o 7.103121 96s 10.150592 97o 8.608650 97s 12.327652 98o 10.323988 98s 15.411158 99o 202.125049 T2o 4.848555 T2s 7.578143 T3o 5.501484 T3s 8.458991 T4o 6.274183 T4s 9.307921 T5o 6.949192 T5s 9.998652 T6o 8.609867 T6s 11.987398 T7o 10.253090 T7s 14.292145 T8o 12.223835 T8s 17.604507 T9o 14.930978 T9s 22.719979 TTo 256.815721 J2o 6.918703 J2s 11.204161 J3o 7.953932 J3s 12.109628 J4o 8.950459 J4s 13.032748 J5o 10.037694 J5s 14.134238 J6o 10.834186 J6s 14.809842 J7o 12.733956 J7s 17.316844 J8o 14.958200 J8s 20.810695 J9o 17.927646 J9s 25.981496 JTo 23.299660 JTs 36.628034 JJo 349.934987 Q2o 11.376900 Q2s 16.752437 Q3o 12.582989 Q3s 17.858401 Q4o 13.747946 Q4s 19.055679 Q5o 15.130340 Q5s 20.478763 Q6o 16.399874 Q6s 21.963309 Q7o 17.188395 Q7s 22.876650 Q8o 19.964644 Q8s 26.981677 Q9o 23.619890 Q9s 32.907071 QTo 30.036653 QTs 44.501932 QJo 33.204524 QJs 50.394333 QQo 550.087512 K2o 20.156245 K2s 26.980395 K3o 21.565057 K3s 28.660021 K4o 23.035466 K4s 30.475611 K5o 24.895185 K5s 32.657479 K6o 26.919787 K6s 35.300209 K7o 28.816285 K7s 37.796916 K8o 30.783568 K8s 40.437905 K9o 36.174856 K9s 48.564953 KTo 45.608339 KTs 64.095478 KJo 51.680575 KJs 74.338025 KQo 59.890903 KQs 89.067516 KKo 1290.323929 A2o 45.819455 A2s 59.197471 A3o 49.181824 A3s 63.478775 A4o 52.777483 A4s 68.020727 A5o 57.523826 A5s 73.895079 A6o 57.113411 A6s 72.267638 A7o 63.940106 A7s 81.074772 A8o 72.472249 A8s 92.302133 A9o 83.718586 A9s 107.386334 ATo 109.651660 ATs 144.726683 AJo 141.893786 AJs 193.397544 AQo 203.934890 AQs 297.477185 AKo 366.480212 AKs 658.056504 AAo Infinite
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Nottom
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I'd hate to try and apply a Sklanski theory problem to real life, but ...
Let's say I'm playing in a Party $50 game (1/2 blinds), its folded to me in the SB (OK you can stop laughing now) and I have a stack of 60. If I don't mind the massive varience going all-in with any hand rated 60 or better would be +EV correct? In fact since my opponent could call me with worse hands and fold better hands, this might even be EV with hands rated less than 60, correct?
Edited by nottom (10/24/03 04:46 PM)
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David Sklansky
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Reged: 08/28/02
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That's what these results will be called from now on. Assuming they are right of course. A cursory glance looks good. Am I right in assuming that you took into account that lessor hands will be called by two card holdings that are slightly worse? And that you took the two cards of your hand out of the deck? (Considering AKs outranks QQ it seems you did.)
Please let us know your full name Karlson. And where I should send the $200.
Also would someone be so kind as to reorder these results from highest to lowest. I would also appreciate if someone would double check some of these results by hand.
Believe me, these are far from trivial results. The can be used as major weapons in tournaments.
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Nottom
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Would you advocate actually using any of these results in a tourney situation? It seems like there is a lot more variance here than most touney players would like. Unless the player is already using your "system" it seems like this wouldn't be too useful until you are late in the tourney and feel that your opponents are better players than you post-flop. I wonder what these results would look like from other positions at the table ... hmmm ... is this the basis for an improved more detailed "System".
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Boris
old hand
Reged: 09/03/02
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Why is AKs ranked higher than QQ while AQs is ranked lower than JJ?
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tewall
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AAo 10000 KKo 1290.32392 AKs 658.056504 QQo 550.087512 AKo 366.480212 JJo 349.934987 AQs 297.477185 TTo 256.815721 AQo 203.93489 99o 202.125049 AJs 193.397544 88o 166.688882 ATs 144.726683 AJo 141.893786 77o 140.163654 66o 119.31682 ATo 109.65166 A9s 107.386334 55o 101.605019 A8s 92.302133 KQs 89.067516 44o 84.187055 A9o 83.718586 A7s 81.074772 KJs 74.338025 A5s 73.895079 A8o 72.472249 A6s 72.267638 A4s 68.020727 33o 67.023645 KTs 64.095478 A7o 63.940106 A3s 63.478775 KQo 59.890903 A2s 59.197471 A5o 57.523826 A6o 57.113411 A4o 52.777483 KJo 51.680575 QJs 50.394333 A3o 49.181824 22o 49.097373 K9s 48.564953 A2o 45.819455 KTo 45.608339 QTs 44.501932 K8s 40.437905 K7s 37.796916 JTs 36.628034 K9o 36.174856 K6s 35.300209 QJo 33.204524 Q9s 32.907071 K5s 32.657479 K8o 30.783568 K4s 30.475611 QTo 30.036653 K7o 28.816285 K3s 28.660021 Q8s 26.981677 K2s 26.980395 K6o 26.919787 J9s 25.981496 K5o 24.895185 Q9o 23.61989 JTo 23.29966 K4o 23.035466 Q7s 22.87665 T9s 22.719979 Q6s 21.963309 K3o 21.565057 J8s 20.810695 Q5s 20.478763 K2o 20.156245 Q8o 19.964644 Q4s 19.055679 J9o 17.927646 Q3s 17.858401 T8s 17.604507 J7s 17.316844 Q7o 17.188395 Q2s 16.752437 Q6o 16.399874 98s 15.411158 Q5o 15.13034 J8o 14.9582 T9o 14.930978 J6s 14.809842 T7s 14.292145 J5s 14.134238 Q4o 13.747946 J4s 13.032748 J7o 12.733956 Q3o 12.582989 97s 12.327652 T8o 12.223835 J3s 12.109628 T6s 11.987398 Q2o 11.3769 J2s 11.204161 87s 11.179617 J6o 10.834186 98o 10.323988 T7o 10.25309 96s 10.150592 J5o 10.037694 T5s 9.998652 T4s 9.307921 86s 9.041014 J4o 8.950459 T6o 8.609867 97o 8.60865 T3s 8.458991 76s 8.361698 95s 8.300009 J3o 7.953932 T2s 7.578143 87o 7.537942 85s 7.271507 96o 7.103121 T5o 6.949192 J2o 6.918703 75s 6.623716 94s 6.611112 T4o 6.274183 65s 6.235193 86o 6.124065 93s 6.084035 84s 5.71556 95o 5.672884 T3o 5.501484 76o 5.460449 92s 5.379643 74s 5.128923 54s 4.870879 T2o 4.848555 85o 4.829605 64s 4.787757 83s 4.478709 94o 4.359892 75o 4.283982 82s 4.142291 73s 4.03075 93o 4.012116 65o 3.986211 53s 3.865458 63s 3.789969 84o 3.749197 92o 3.594775 43s 3.415791 74o 3.376566 54o 3.23233 72s 3.230863 64o 3.180263 52s 3.125558 62s 3.064287 83o 3.002894 42s 2.806653 82o 2.802784 73o 2.739177 53o 2.648645 63o 2.598784 32s 2.577355 43o 2.374371 72o 2.249071 52o 2.188207 62o 2.145689 42o 1.982895 32o 1.83186
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ramjam
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I think it's primarily a function of the number of dominating hands that BB could hold given the cards that SB holds:
-AKs could face 6 (3 AA + 3 KK) whereas QQ could face 12 (6 AA + 6 KK); -JJ could face 18 (6 AA + 6 KK + 6 QQ) whereas AQs could face 24 (3 AA + 6 KK + 3 QQ + 12 AK).
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karlson
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Yes, I took the cards out of the deck, and yes, the BB could call as a slight underdog.
I have specific data such as which hands will call the raise and their odds of winning, if people find any particular result fishy. I'll try to post the AQs / JJ data at some point.
My name is Victor Chubukov. I'll put my coordinates in message for you, David.
For those that think they may know me, I'm a student at Berkeley and semi-regularly play in the 15/30 at Oaks Club.
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karlson
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I don't have a great answer to this question.
I think the danger of running in to AK may be the key. AQs will win about 43% of the time that it's called, and AKs, 46%, if that helps.
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Your Mom
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Not to be a dick, David, but it seems it should be the Karlson-Sklansky ratings, wouldn't you agree?
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AmericanAirlines
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Hi Karlson, Could someone point me to the thread that originated this line of inquiry?
I'm still trying to figure out the exact scenario being analyzed and why it's important enough to offer a reward for the answer.
Sincerely, AA
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Nottom
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The "Important No Limit Math Problem" also posted by Sklanski. In that he asked, how big a stack could a player in the SB push all-in (after all other players had folded) in a game with 1-2 Blinds, flip over his cards to show the BB and still be making a +EV play
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AmericanAirlines
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Hi Nottom, Thanks much.
Sincerely, AA
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Boris
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Phat Mack
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Reged: 09/02/02
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Loc: People's Republic of Texas
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I would also appreciate if someone would double check some of these results by hand. I've checked a couple, and they looked real solid. Am I right in assuming that you took into account that lessor hands will be called by two card holdings that are slightly worse? I would have to know the criterea for including marginal hands to get a precise check. For example, in the famous A8o problem, I selected all hands with a greater than .5 EV against A8o. I came up with 134 hands ( out of 1225). These included A8s but not the other A8o's. I think A8s's were excluded from the original problem. At any rate, A8o had an avg. EV of .32455 against the 134 hands. x = 73.457, which was very close to 72.472. Using the same methodology, T8s yielded an x = 20.98 vs. 17.6. (T8s's EV against 700/1225 hands was .4186.) QTo produced an x= 32.01997083 vs 30.036653.
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Phat Mack
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Sims were done in Hold 'em Showdown. Calculations were performed as per Almost Perfect Simple Solution
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karlson
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The T8s will be called by quite a few hands that are not favorites. These are small pocket pairs (through 55, 66 is slight favorite) and the other T8 hands. I have it being called by 733 hands and still at about 42% when it is called.
A8 will be called by 141 hands, including two that are underdogs (the ones with the 8 of the suit of our A). That may account for the slight discrepancy.
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ZeeJustin
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Late in a tournament, there's an all-in raise, and you are either in the big blind, or know for some reason that if you call, no one else will. Is it safe to say that this is the order of hands that you should play? I.e you should be more likely to call the raise with AQs than TT?
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muck_nutz
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I'm not sure I follow why you think T8s will be called by 55 in the open hand situation. The 33 > AK, AK > JTs, JTs > 33 non transitive example is well known enough that at least some people are going to realize that you fold 77 [ignoring dead money] to a "revealed" raise by JTs (but you call with 88).
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karlson
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Quote:
[ignoring dead money]
Why would you do that?
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tewall
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I don't think that's necessarily so. The first list is a list of hands that make a profit raising the BB even if the BB knows the hand that's raising it by order of how large the stack can be before the bet is no longer profitable. This list is acting against an unknown, and therefore, random hand. What BB can call with could well be different because what SB would raise with is not random.
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muck_nutz
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It wasn't important to my comment. You wouldn't ignore the dead money in real life. So, back to my question. Why do you think if you jammed with T8s I would think my 55 was a favorite? Or are you assuming that dogs which are getting the right price are going to call? I thought you were making a subjective assumption that some people would call with hands which were not getting the right price. Is that incorrect?
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karlson
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The BB is an expert. He will only call with hands that are getting the right price. 55 is a call against T8s even thought it is a slight underdog because of the blinds already in the pot. We are not making any subjective assumptions.
Hope that clears up any confusion.
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muck_nutz
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Yea, that is as I hope it was.
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Phat Mack
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Do your numbers represent the total amount bet, or the amount in addition to the $1 called?
It might be most useful to express the numbers as a ratio to the dead money in the pot, as opposed to the bet in a specific $1, $2 NL game.
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karlson
enthusiast
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The $1 in the SB is not included.
Divide by 2 if you want the ratio of the bet to the dead money.
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Phat Mack
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Divide by 2 if you want the ratio of the bet to the dead money.
I think I'm missing something. There's $3 in the pot: in the A8o example, moving in with $70 would be 70/3 the dead money. In a $5-$10 game with $15 dead money, I would move in 70/3 * $15 = $350. Correct?
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karlson
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Posts: 233
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Yeah, that's right. Just a question of terminology....to me, there's only $2 dead money in the pot and there's a $1 bet to you. I think you have the idea.
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magic_man
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Loc: College Park, MD
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In Mr. Sklansky's articles on "The System" and "Improving the System", he challenges others to improve upon his "groupings" even more...can we use these results to do just that?
~Magic_Man
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Nottom
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Does anyone happen to have a link to the articles on "the system"?
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magic_man
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Posts: 63
Loc: College Park, MD
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It used to be at the link below, but it's not working now for some reason. Maybe it will come back:
http://www.cardplayer.com/?sec=afeature&art_id=13194
~Magic_Man
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tewall
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So shouldn't it be the Sklansky-Chubukov No Limit Rankings? By the way, it's a good thing "karlson" is with a "k" and not a "c"! I'm not sure David could stomach that.
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Nottom
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I had checked there before I posted and couldn't find it. I also noticed that there were none of Mason or Davids articles from before a couple months ago listed in the archives. 
I did however find this thread on these boards.
Summary of Davids Bellagio Seminar
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rockoon
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Reged: 12/03/02
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Quote:
With a one and two dollar blind we now know that A8offsuit in the SB, is better off moving in up to about 70 dollars more (even if the big blind saw his cards) than he would be folding. If we thus say A8 has a rating of 70 or so, what are the ratings for all other hands?
To make sure you understand, notice that 32 has a rating of one while slightly better hands have a rating of two. Thats because you are getting 3-1 if you put in one and 4-2 if you put in two.(Obviously the big blind would always call in this case). Fairly poor hands would be rated three, getting 5-3 odds. At the other extreme, two kings would have a rating of about 1000. Since it will pick up the pot unless the big blind has kings or aces and will win some of those hands too.
If someone can tell me the "rating" for all hands (I would assume with the help of a computer program), I'll send them $200 and give them credit whenever I write about those results.
It is interresting to note that the "optimal" (maximizing EV) all-in amount is different from the "maximum" (break-even) all-in amount and that the two functions are not linear to each other. Considering the pocket pairs:
(all values in units of the big blind)
22 - 3.1, 24.6 33 - 3.4, 33.3 44 - 3.8, 41.5 55 - 5.0, 49.9 <- the "opimtal" amount peaks here at 5*BB 66 - 4.8, 58.2 77 - 3.6, 68.0 88 - 3.5, 80.2 99 - 3.2, 96.3 TT - 3.4, 120.3 <- smaller peak here, TT kills str8s JJ - 3.0, 160.2 QQ - 3.0, 239.6 KK - 3.0, 477.5 AA - INF, INF
While the "maximum" amount keeps rising, the "optimal" amount rises then falls and does a dance near the end. The values for pocket aces are undefined. Aces EV is the money in the pot.
These values were derived from the A8o puzzle where the small blind hold's one of these pocket pairs instead.
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JonCooke
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Next job, David. And this is even more crucial for the heads up stage of one table satellites.
With a stack size of n, blinds 1-2.
Lets constrain betting to fold or all-in.
For various values of n: What range of hands should go all in? Given that range of hands going all in, what should the opponent call with?
This is a game theory excercise. I've got some approximations for n=20 using TTH. Does anyone have a spreadsheet with Hand A/Hand B/Odds that they could send me? Then I'll tackle the whole problem.
At what value of n is the allin or fold strategy no longer optimal?
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bigpooch
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Reged: 09/17/03
Posts: 759
Loc: Vancouver, Canada
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David:
Karlson's numbers don't seem correct. Consider KK: The number quoted is 1290+ but look at this calculation:
Assume (with a benefit to the KK!) that KK wins about 19% of the time vs AA:
There are 50C2 = 1225 possible hands:
AA (6): EV = (x+2)(0.19)-x(0.81) KK (1): EV = (+3)(1/2) other (1218): EV = +3
Thus, for the EV to be >0,
6((x+2)(0.19) - x(0.81)) + 1(1.5) + 1218 (+3) > 0 solving yields x as approximately 983. It should be a tiny bit less since KK doesn't quite win 19% of the share of pots versus AA.
Cheers,
"bigpooch" a.k.a. "mangler"
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karlson
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Thank you very much for pointing this out. I am surprised that no one (myself included) tried this simple calculation by hand. I checked some other ones, but I used intermediate results that were incorrect.
So I did find an error in my code. I will have new numbers posted tomorrow sometime. The correct value for KK is 954.
Sorry about this. I hope David didn't yet put them in his article.
If anyone has conclusive proof that these numbers cost them a place in a tourney, I'll make sure to reimburse him or her.
Victor.
Edit: By the way, the numbers for most hands should not change much, since my mistake was effectively making the BB call with one extra hand. For KK, this was quite significant.
Edited by karlson (11/01/03 06:30 AM)
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bigpooch
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Loc: Vancouver, Canada
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Victor:
I just thought intuitively there was something wrong with that specific number for KK as it is only about 220-1 against the BB holding AA. After your new table is constructed, it seems more useful to consider a modified game: suppose the SB states that I have "the hand XY or better" and then the BB must decide. This seems a much more useful practical question especially in a NL cash game or tournament. So even if someone were using your older numbers for the purposes of a tournment or in a cash game, I would think the play still had +EV.
Cheers,
"bigpooch" a.k.a. "mangler"
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karlson
enthusiast
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As promised, I have revised rankings.
They looked ugly when I posted them, and I don't want to clog up the thread, but you can see them at http://www.decf.berkeley.edu/~chubukov/rankings.html
Let me know if there are more issues.
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rockoon
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Reged: 12/03/02
Posts: 74
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Quote:
Victor:
I just thought intuitively there was something wrong with that specific number for KK as it is only about 220-1 against the BB holding AA. After your new table is constructed, it seems more useful to consider a modified game: suppose the SB states that I have "the hand XY or better" and then the BB must decide. This seems a much more useful practical question especially in a NL cash game or tournament. So even if someone were using your older numbers for the purposes of a tournment or in a cash game, I would think the play still had +EV.
Cheers,
"bigpooch" a.k.a. "mangler"
I did some research along this line. I did not take into account dead money in the pot or blinds posted. Just a consideration along the lines of two players each get dealt a hand. The first player begins with the entire range of hands and asked the question, what hands can't profitably play? I called this list Grade F.
Then I took the remaining list of hands, the ones that could profitably play, and asked the question, what hands can't profitably play against this list? I called this list Grade E.
I kept doing this until I got down to the 3 hands AA, KK, and QQ.
This produces 6 lists of hands which I have labels "Grade A", "Grade B", "Grade C", .. "Grade F"
Grade A: AA, KK, QQ Grade B: JJ, TT, AK, AQs Grade C: 99, 88, 77, 66, AQo, AJ, AT, A9 Grade D: 55, 44, A8, A7, A6, A5, A4, A3s, A2s, KQ, KJ, KT, K9s Grade E: 33, 22, A3o, A2o, K9o, K8, K7, K6, K5, K4, K3, K2, QJ, QT, Q9, Q8, Q7, Q6, Q5, Q4s, Q3s, Q2s, JT, J9, J8, J7s, J6s, T9, T8s, T7s, 98s Grade F: Remaining hands
The grades are structured such that if you opponent may hold Grade D or better, you can only profitably go even money against him when you hold grade C or better (the next higher grade)
"AK" is taken to be either "AKs" or "AKo" and so forth.
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clovenhoof
member
Reged: 05/12/03
Posts: 195
Loc: North Vancouver, BC
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