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Nate tha' Great
old hand

Reged: 09/07/03
Posts: 1120

Swing State prediction contest
#1190165 - 10/28/04 07:40 PM

Somebody was going to do this, so I figured it might as well be me.

These are the 19 states that are still in contention, according to RealClearPolitics. The electoral vote counts are included in parenthesis. RCP assumes that 149 electoral votes are solid for Kerry, and 191 for Bush, so if you're trying to engineer a result for your favorite candidate, you can work from there.

There will be no prize for the contest, however I'll be happy to tally the results once the outcomes are certified in each state. The contest will be scored as follows:

1. Number of states picked correctly
2. Number of states picked correctly, weighted by Electoral votes
3. +/- differential in overall Electoral Vote prediction
4. +/- differential in Popular Vote predicton

Entries must be submitted by Sunday at 5 PM Central Time or I won't count them. Have fun.

AR (6)
CO (9)
IA (7)
FL (27)
HI (4)
ME (4)
MN (10)
MI (17)
MO (11)
NH (4)
NJ (15)
NM (5)
NV (5)
OH (20)
OR (7)
PA (21)
WV (5)
WA (11)
WI (10)
Popular Vote margin (to tenth of a decimal place):
Electoral Result:

I've included my predictions below.

====

AR (6) - Kerry
CO (9) - Bush
IA (7) - Kerry
FL (27) - Bush
HI (4) - Kerry
ME (4) - Kerry
MN (10) - Kerry
MI (17) - Kerry
MO (11) - Bush
NH (4) - Kerry
NJ (15) - Kerry
NM (5) - Bush
NV (5) - Bush
OH (20) - Kerry
OR (7) - Kerry
PA (21) - Kerry
WV (5) - Bush
WA (11) - Kerry
WI (10) - Bush
Popular Vote margin (to tenth of a decimal place): Kerry +0.6
Electoral Result: Kerry 275, Bush 263.

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TomCollins
member

Reged: 07/28/03
Posts: 172
Loc: Austin, TX

Re: Swing State prediction contest [Re: Nate tha' Great]
#1190208 - 10/28/04 07:55 PM

AR (6) Bush
CO (9) Bush
IA (7) Bush
FL (27) Bush
HI (4) Kerry
ME (4) Kerry
MN (10) Kerry
MI (17) Kerry
MO (11) Bush
NH (4) Kerry
NJ (15) Kerry
NM (5) Kerry
NV (5) Bush
OH (20) Bush
OR (7) Kerry
PA (21) Kerry
WV (5) Bush
WA (11) Kerry
WI (10) Bush
Bush 47.5% Kerry 47.3% (.2%)
Electoral Result:
Bush 291 Kerry 247

Flame on.

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goofball
newbie

Reged: 10/20/03
Posts: 43

Re: Swing State prediction contest [Re: Nate tha' Great]
#1190293 - 10/28/04 08:23 PM

AR (6) Bush
CO (9) Kerry
IA (7) Bush
FL (27) Bush
HI (4) Kerry
ME (4) Kerry
MN (10) Kerry
MI (17) Kerry
MO (11) Bush
NH (4) Kerry
NJ (15) Kerry
NM (5) Bush
NV (5) Bush
OH (20) Kerry
OR (7) Kerry
PA (21) Kerry
WV (5) Bush
WA (11) Kerry
WI (10) Kerry

Kerry 281
Bush 257
Bush by .1% in the popular vote

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AceHigh
old hand

Reged: 09/02/02
Posts: 1173
Loc: Pennsylvania

Re: Swing State prediction contest [Re: Nate tha' Great]
#1190342 - 10/28/04 08:40 PM

AR (6) - Kerry
CO (9) - Bush
IA (7) - Kerry
FL (27) - Kerry
HI (4) - Kerry
ME (4) - Kerry
MN (10) - Kerry
MI (17) - Kerry
MO (11) - Bush
NH (4) - Kerry
NJ (15) - Kerry
NM (5) - Bush
NV (5) - Bush
OH (20) - Kerry
OR (7) - Kerry
PA (21) - Kerry
WV (5) - Bush
WA (11) - Kerry
WI (10) - Kerry
Popular Vote margin (to tenth of a decimal place): Kerry +2.5
Electoral Result: Kerry 312, Bush 226.

Edited by AceHigh (10/28/04 08:43 PM)

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Non_Comformist
member

Reged: 03/20/04
Posts: 101

Re: Swing State prediction contest [Re: Nate tha' Great]
#1190494 - 10/28/04 09:19 PM

AR B
CO B
IA B
FL B
HI K
ME K
MN K
MI K
MO B
NH B
NV B
OH B
OR K
PA K
WV B
WA K
WI B

Bush 295
Kerry 243

Popular vate +.6 Bush

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lorinda
Pooh-Bah

Reged: 09/02/02
Posts: 2478
Loc: England

Re: Swing State prediction contest [Re: Nate tha' Great]
#1191399 - 10/29/04 03:18 AM

AR (6) - Bush
CO (9) - Bush
IA (7) - Kerry
FL (27) - Bush
HI (4) - Kerry
ME (4) - Kerry
MN (10) - Bush
MI (17) - Kerry
MO (11) - Bush
NH (4) - Kerry
NJ (15) - Kerry
NM (5) - Bush
NV (5) - Bush
OH (20) - Kerry
OR (7) - Kerry
PA (21) - Kerry
WV (5) - Bush
WA (11) - Kerry
WI (10) - Kerry

Bush 269
Kerry 269

Popular Vote: Kerry +0.0

Edit: Does this seem THAT unrealistic?

Lori

Edited by lorinda (10/29/04 03:21 AM)

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GWB
enthusiast

Reged: 03/16/04
Posts: 248
Loc: A nice little white house with...

Re: Swing State prediction contest [Re: lorinda]
#1191587 - 10/29/04 04:58 AM

Quote:

Does this seem THAT unrealistic?

It's gutsy to give MN to me at the same time giving WI to Kerry.

While you are all at it, how about a Senate prediction? Count Jeffords as a Democrat for this exercise. Current make-up in the Senate is Republican 51 to 49.

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goofball
newbie

Reged: 10/20/03
Posts: 43

Re: Swing State prediction contest [Re: GWB]
#1191612 - 10/29/04 05:11 AM

sadly the looks of ir right now is the bad guys look to gain a few seats in the senate

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lorinda
Pooh-Bah

Reged: 09/02/02
Posts: 2478
Loc: England

Re: Swing State prediction contest [Re: GWB]
#1191614 - 10/29/04 05:11 AM

It's gutsy to give MN to me at the same time giving WI to Kerry.

Swap them over... same result

Lori

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GWB
enthusiast

Reged: 03/16/04
Posts: 248
Loc: A nice little white house with...

Re: Swing State prediction contest [Re: lorinda]
#1191632 - 10/29/04 05:24 AM

Quote:

It's gutsy to give MN to me at the same time giving WI to Kerry.

Swap them over... same result

Lori

I like the way you had it. Some earlier predictors had Kerry picking up AR, which would be a bit of a surprise.

My surprise pick is that I will blind-side Kerry by picking up MI.

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