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Limit Texas Hold'em >> Small Stakes Shorthanded

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Guido
old hand


Reged: 07/01/03
Posts: 942
Loc: Netherlands
Seems like I can't beat 10/20
      #1049703 - 09/22/04 12:52 PM

I've had some big downswings and some more downswings then an upswing (+98BB in a 2 hour session) and after that some more downswings. I'm either outplayed or I'm just unlucky. I hope it's the last but I get the feeling it's the first.

Only 9059 hands

VP$IP 16.80%
VP$IP SB 25.66%
Saw flop all hands 22.75%
Saw flop not a blind 12.76%
Folded SB to a steal 89.14%
Folded BB to a steal 69.32%
Folded BB to steal HU 66.97%
Att. to steal 23.05%
W$WSF 38.04%
WTS 31.59%
W$ at SD 52.53%
PFR 12.18%

Aggression factors:
Pre-flop 1.97
Flop 4.20
Turn 3.39
River 2.13
Total 2.73

BB/100 -2.42

Are some of these figures extreem?

Maybe I should stick to 5/10 and don't move up again .

Thanks,

Guido


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jujujaja34
journeyman


Reged: 07/08/03
Posts: 62
Re: Seems like I can't beat 10/20 [Re: Guido]
      #1049826 - 09/22/04 01:25 PM

Guido,

My initial suspicion is that you are playing overly tight and seriously overplaying some hands.

FWIW, I think 2+2ers undervalue overlimping in Party short games.

As I've said before, from your posts I really think you can beat this game at a decent clip. It's really tough to cite specifics with out seeing you play, though.

jujujaja34


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chio
addict


Reged: 06/16/04
Posts: 429
Re: Seems like I can't beat 10/20 [Re: Guido]
      #1049886 - 09/22/04 01:41 PM

VP$IP 16.80%
from first glance that looks really really tight

i do know that telling yourself to loosen up can result overcompensation as well as being in uncomfortable situations postflop, so look for a select few places here and there to play a few more hands

i think these preflop/blinds posts going around are pretty useful, so maybe respond to those or post some preflop situations where you would usually fold but know that it's close

of course you know and i know that a 1.5-2BB/100 winner could easily be -2BB/100 after 9k hands. maybe kiddo can do an exact probabilty analysis given a SD/100 of 16-18 or so?


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Nate tha' Great
old hand


Reged: 09/07/03
Posts: 1120
Re: Seems like I can't beat 10/20 [Re: Guido]
      #1049917 - 09/22/04 01:49 PM

You are playing MUCH TOO TIGHT before the flop especially in the blinds. Folding that often in the BB makes it correct for your opponents to raise with any two. You should be defending AT LEAST 40% of the time to avoid getting run over and probably closer to 50%. (I defend against a steal like 55% of the time). This is not a matter of your being able to afford to loosen up a little bit. This is a SUBSTANTIAL LEAK against aggressive opponents in a shorthanded setting. Keep in mind that this is to a certain extent an implied odds game in the sense that your opponents tend to make a lot of mistakes after the flop and you'd like to see enough boards to take advantage of that.

The flipside is that it appears that you might be pounding a little bit too much after the flop, especially with unimproved overcards. I am taking this from the fact that your W$SD is not particularly high in spite of a high aggression factor and very tight preflop standards. (My W$SD is around the same as yours, but as you've seen I make some pretty loose preflop plays and also win a higher percentage of flops than you do). I think it's possible that these two things are related if:

1) You are sort of microtilting by playing too few hands and getting frustrated when they don't hit the flop right.
2) You have a very readable range of playing standards and so your opponents are generally making correct decisions about the proper play against you.

You need to experiment with being able to shift gears a little bit before you're really ready to beat these games for what they're worth. If that requires dropping down to 5/10 for a few more weeks, or reducing the number of tables that you play, you should do that.


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Schneids
old hand


Reged: 09/08/03
Posts: 1084
Loc: Eagan, MN
Re: Seems like I can't beat 10/20 [Re: Guido]
      #1049924 - 09/22/04 01:53 PM

I've played 8,800 hands this month and my PFR is higher than your VPIP... yet, my aggression factor stats are lower than you on all streets:

pf 1.35
flop 3.29
turn 2.96
river 2.20
overall 2.10


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Guido
old hand


Reged: 07/01/03
Posts: 942
Loc: Netherlands
Re: Seems like I can't beat 10/20 [Re: jujujaja34]
      #1049987 - 09/22/04 02:10 PM

Thanks jujujaja34,

Maybe I should limp more from the button or even EP. Not sure about that. I know I play pretty tight but I just can't cold call with hands like KQo or ATo. Seems there are a lot of raises and I just fold these kind of hands, wrong?

Thanks,

Guido


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Nate tha' Great
old hand


Reged: 09/07/03
Posts: 1120
Re: Seems like I can't beat 10/20 [Re: Guido]
      #1050011 - 09/22/04 02:16 PM

Quote:

Thanks jujujaja34,

Maybe I should limp more from the button or even EP. Not sure about that. I know I play pretty tight but I just can't cold call with hands like KQo or ATo. Seems there are a lot of raises and I just fold these kind of hands, wrong?

Thanks,

Guido




You should at least be considering 3-betting with KQo and ATo.


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sam h
old hand


Reged: 09/02/02
Posts: 742
Re: Seems like I can't beat 10/20 [Re: Guido]
      #1050029 - 09/22/04 02:20 PM

A VPIP that low is not a product of folding those hands to a raise outside of the blinds.

You are definitely not playing enough out of the blinds and probably not opening up your range of playable hands enough from button and CO.


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Guido
old hand


Reged: 07/01/03
Posts: 942
Loc: Netherlands
Re: Seems like I can't beat 10/20 [Re: Nate tha' Great]
      #1050033 - 09/22/04 02:21 PM

Nate, you are absolutely right that I'm too tight in the blinds. I had this problem too at 5/10. I'm just starting to defend with hands like 89o, T9o, J9o ect. This isn't to diffecult and I'm sure I can get it down to at least 60% but I have a hard time with playing these hands postflop when I don't hit something. When I miss do I just check-fold most of the time? This way they only get more money... Do I need to defend with Kxo? Lower than Q8o?

About my postflop play with high cards; when I miss and I have 1 or 2 opponents I bet the flop almost always when it's checked to me. When one calls I bet the turn again and check behind on the river. When both call the flop bet I check the turn most of the time and depending on the river and who bets, I fold or call the river.

Do you limp often out of the blinds? For me it's almost always raise or fold and I don't really know where I could raise more. Maybe steal raise more, not sure...

Thanks a lot,

Guido


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Nate tha' Great
old hand


Reged: 09/07/03
Posts: 1120
Re: Seems like I can't beat 10/20 [Re: Guido]
      #1050147 - 09/22/04 02:53 PM

Quote:

Nate, you are absolutely right that I'm too tight in the blinds. I had this problem too at 5/10. I'm just starting to defend with hands like 89o, T9o, J9o ect. This isn't to diffecult and I'm sure I can get it down to at least 60% but I have a hard time with playing these hands postflop when I don't hit something. When I miss do I just check-fold most of the time?




Yeah, usually. The pot odds that you're getting preflop allow you to see a lot of flops and apply a fit-or-fold philosophy. Sometimes I'll make a play if the flop is like 56T and I have 98o. I also 3-bet from the blinds a fair bit.

Quote:

This way they only get more money... Do I need to defend with Kxo? Lower than Q8o?




I won't usually defend with Kxo against a Button open-raise but will usually defend or 3-bet against an SB open-raise. I wouldn't diddle around with the lower offsuit queens. I don't know exactly which hands you need to start playing in order to get up to the proper blind defense %, but there have to be a bunch of them somewhere in there.

Quote:

About my postflop play with high cards; when I miss and I have 1 or 2 opponents I bet the flop almost always when it's checked to me.




I do this probably 99.5% of the time; no problem there.

Quote:

When one calls I bet the turn again and check behind on the river.




Now this worries me. This is a decision that is highly dependant on board texture and opponent characteristics. There are a lot of times when it's better to check behind on the turn, sometimes with the intention of calling the river and sometimes with the intention of folding.

Quote:

When both call the flop bet I check the turn most of the time and depending on the river and who bets, I fold or call the river.




Again, the worry I have is that you are being too formulaic in your decision making (one opponent = bet; two opponents = check). Against two opponents, it is less likely that you're ahead with ace (or king) high but there is also more incentive to bet since the pot is a little bit larger and since the field has more collective outs against you when you currently have the best hand.

The other thing I'd look at is how you are reacting to aggression. For example, I suspect that you are raising too often with unimproved overcards when bet into.

Quote:

Do you limp often out of the blinds?




I overlimp some from the CO/Button but I don't think this is your main problem. I rarely limp first in.

Quote:

For me it's almost always raise or fold and I don't really know where I could raise more. Maybe steal raise more, not sure...




You should definitely steal-raise more. Maybe 50% more often than you are currently since most of us around here have a steal range percentage of 30% or so.

Look at it this way. These 6-max games go at a rate of about 90 hands per hour, so you will be in each position about 15 times respectively, or about 30 plays total between the Button and Cutoff. Suppose that it is folded to you 40% of the time ... that works out to 12 steal-raising opportunities per table hour. You are only raising in 20% of those cases (2.4 times) when you should be raising 30% of the time (3.6 times). That equals 1.2 "missed" steal-raises per hour.

What is the EV loss from a missed steal-raise? Hard to say exactly but stripsqueenz was posting stats wherein he was making 0.15 BB/hand or so by stealing with weak aces on the Button, so let's go with that number. 0.15 BB x 1.2 = 0.18 BB per table hour. If you play 4 tables at once that works out to 0.18 BB x $20 x 4 tables = $14.40 in lost profit per hour. If you play 20 hours a week that is $288 in lost income per week.

Over a year, the loss of income stemming from your failure to steal-raise enough is $14,976. Of course you can run the same analysis for any sort of leak and come up with some ridiculous numbers, but this one is particularly easy to diagnose and particularly easy to fix. FWIW, I suspect that your loss of income stemming from failing to defend the blinds enough is at least twice as much as this.


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