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Limit Texas Hold'em >> Small Stakes Hold'em

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Homer
Carpal Tunnel

Reged: 09/02/02
Posts: 5909

Streaks
#445039 - 12/16/03 02:11 PM

There has been so much talk about losing streaks here recently that I decided to do a simulation in Excel to determine how often losing streaks should occur for a winning player with an EV of 1 BB/hr and an SD of 10 BB/hr. I haven't quite finished, but thought I'd post these charts for you. They are all "BB's won vs. hours played", with the difference being that the first chart is for 10,000 hrs (5 yrs of full time play for a B&M player), second for 1000 hrs and third for 100 hrs.

Notice that the 10,000 hr chart looks smooth. You'd take that, right? Winning nice and steady at a rate of 1 BB/hr? Now look at the 1000 hr chart. Doesn't look quite so nice, does it? Lastly, look at the 100 hr chart. Looks painful, wouldn't you say? Now, quickly, look back at the 10,000 hr chart. Ahh, much better. Remember, just play solid poker and your win rate will fall into place. Don't obsess over losing streaks, or the big picture won't be so smooth.

BTW, if anyone is interested in doing this on their own, here's what I did:

- In cell A1 in Excel, enter =RAND() to generate a random number between 0 and 1, then copy to cells A2 through A10000

- In cell B1, enter =(X*NORMSINV(A1))+Y, where X is your SD/hr and Y is your EV/hr, then copy to cells B2 through B10000. This converts the random number to your win for that hour.

- In cell C1, enter =B1 and in cell C2, enter =C1+B2, then copy C2 to cells C3 through C10000. This is your total win after X hours.

You can then graph column C3 versus time, for 10,000 hrs, 1000 hrs, 100 hrs, or whatever.

-- Homer

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JTG51
Carpal \'Tunnel

Reged: 09/05/02
Posts: 3746
Loc: CT

Re: Streaks [Re: Homer]
#445050 - 12/16/03 02:17 PM

Great stuff Homer. Being the geek that I am, I actually have a graph of my own results on Party. To keep it simple I use my ending balance each day. It's not nearly as up and down as an hourly graph, but there are still lots of sharp spikes and dips.

My only beef (pun intended) with your post is, I looked at the subject quickly and though it said "steaks" which made me hungry.

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NotReady
journeyman

Reged: 05/06/03
Posts: 70

Re: Streaks [Re: Homer]
#445068 - 12/16/03 02:30 PM

Can you tell me exactly what NORMSINV does? I have Works, and would like to translate this to that spreadsheet. Thanks.

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LetsRock
veteran

Reged: 11/10/03
Posts: 1495
Loc: California

Re: Streaks [Re: Homer]
#445069 - 12/16/03 02:30 PM

Prezactly!

Nice work!

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Lost Wages
old hand

Reged: 09/03/02
Posts: 981
Loc: Houston, Texas

Re: Streaks [Re: Homer]
#445070 - 12/16/03 02:30 PM

Thanks Homer.

I like the 1000 hour chart as that represents about a year of play for the dedicated amateur. I count 5 times that our hero's bankroll dipped >100BB from a previous high point. That's about once every two months. The worst dip beginning about the 850 hour mark looks to be about 180BB. The average duration of the losing streak looks to be about 80 hours or about a month of running bad playing 20 hours/week.

It has always been my contention that you cannot say, "I am currently in a losing streak". You can only say, "I have lost X BB over my last Y hours". Losing streaks can only be seen in hindsight.

Lost Wages

Edited by Lost Wages (12/16/03 02:34 PM)

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anatta
addict

Reged: 09/04/02
Posts: 671

Re: Streaks [Re: Lost Wages]
#445080 - 12/16/03 02:40 PM

Three months into the year on the 1000 hour graph, and the winning player is down. Its easy to see why the mental part of this game is so important.

Thanks Homer.

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Analyst
member

Reged: 10/22/03
Posts: 153

Re: Streaks [Re: Homer]
#445081 - 12/16/03 02:40 PM

Homer -

Nice! Another way to show this type of variation in Excel is through Monte Carlo simulation. You'd need some type of add-on package like Insight.xla or XLSim, written by Dr. Sam Savage at Stanford, available at AnalyCorp. I'm not affiliated with them, but have taken a simulation course from Dr. Savage and used the tools - great stuff, and well worth the $50/$100 if you're into this type of modeling.

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Homer
Carpal Tunnel

Reged: 09/02/02
Posts: 5909

Re: Streaks [Re: Analyst]
#445092 - 12/16/03 02:51 PM

Thanks for the info, Analyst. I've always enjoyed doing this sort of thing, but only have a small amount of training (Mechanical Reliability course in college). Maybe one day I will take a simulation class and learn some more.

-- Homer

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Joe Tall
Carpal \'Tunnel

Reged: 04/11/03
Posts: 4238
Loc: Worcester, MA

Re: Streaks [Re: JTG51]
#445108 - 12/16/03 03:03 PM

Quote:

To keep it simple I use my ending balance each day. It's not nearly as up and down as an hourly graph, but there are still lots of sharp spikes and dips.

Do you always play the same number of tables? Sometimes I do sometimes I don't so when I set up my sheet I had trouble organizing my results. I was wondering how you go about it.

Peace,
JT

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Hung
old hand

Reged: 11/13/02
Posts: 994
Loc: Brussel (Belgium)

Re: Streaks [Re: Homer]
#445109 - 12/16/03 03:03 PM

I enjoy making them too. But only when i'm winning.

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