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Posts Made By:
heihojin
Forum:
Probability
10-03-2002, 03:03 PM
Replies:
36
Envelopes!
Views:
666
Posted By
heihojin
Re: Envelopes! (Problem #1) Long
The main problem is that I find it nonsensical to discuss unbounded probability distributions. It may just be because I haven't yet encountered such in my math education, but I've always considered...
Forum:
Probability
10-03-2002, 06:00 AM
Replies:
36
Envelopes!
Views:
666
Posted By
heihojin
Re: Envelopes! (Problem #1)
irchans,
Could you explain your reasoning for both of these solutions?
In the first case, I can understand how one might think that given an amount Y in the first envelope, that the probability...
Forum:
Probability
10-03-2002, 03:07 AM
Replies:
1
Updating Probability Estimates
Views:
125
Posted By
heihojin
Re: Updating Probability Estimates
In your table titled "Player 1 Action Probabilities," the values in the BC row do not sum to 1.
heihojin
Forum:
Probability
10-02-2002, 11:51 PM
Replies:
36
Envelopes!
Views:
666
Posted By
heihojin
Re: Commentary on Solution to game #2
To expound on irchans's reply, to calculate optimal strategy you are assuming that your opponent knows the rules of the game, and that your opponent is attempting to maximize his or her expected...
Forum:
Probability
09-26-2002, 12:56 PM
Replies:
5
Variance
Views:
159
Posted By
heihojin
Re: Variance
Any statement that your variance per unit of time will change as a result of playing more than one hand assumes that all other things are equal, i.e. you are playing an identical strategy against...
Forum:
Probability
09-26-2002, 01:26 AM
Replies:
1
Odds calculations
Views:
122
Posted By
heihojin
Re: Odds calculations
Holding the bet has an expectation of (6/11) * $10 - (5/11) * $10 = $0.91. Selling the bet has an expectation of $1. You should definitely sell.
Your friend's expectation in purchasing the bet...
Forum:
Probability
09-26-2002, 01:10 AM
Replies:
5
Variance
Views:
159
Posted By
heihojin
Re: Variance
Dave wrote: "In blackjack, a person or team can reduce their variance by playing more than one hand at a table."
Just as an addendum to what irchans and BruceZ have said, the reduction in variance...
Forum:
Probability
09-25-2002, 12:17 AM
Replies:
28
Does It Matter?
Views:
402
Posted By
heihojin
Ignore the previous post.
I'm just full of errors today. I misunderstood irchans; in fact, in my original post, I had assumed independence of events A and B by assuming P(B|!A) = 1.
Again, sorry for the error.
heihojin
Forum:
Probability
09-25-2002, 12:02 AM
Replies:
28
Does It Matter?
Views:
402
Posted By
heihojin
Re: Does It Matter?
This is a recant of my previous post. This was not immediately obvious to me when I posted it this morning; rather, a counterexample to my previous argument occurred to me earlier today after I woke...
Forum:
Probability
09-24-2002, 11:09 PM
Replies:
28
Does It Matter?
Views:
402
Posted By
heihojin
Re: Does It Matter?
As a correction to my last post, I wrote "Because P(C|B) is greater for switching than not, you should switch. Notice that this is regardless of the probability of event B occurring, so long as it is...
Forum:
Probability
09-24-2002, 10:08 PM
Replies:
28
Does It Matter?
Views:
402
Posted By
heihojin
Re: Summary
irchans states: "Heihojin's formula seems to fail in this case due to lack of independence." irchans then assumes that events A and B are independent.
This is not correct, because event B is only...
Forum:
Probability
09-24-2002, 12:06 PM
Replies:
28
Does It Matter?
Views:
402
Posted By
heihojin
Re: Does It Matter?
Whether or not the propositioner could have turned over a black card is irrelevant, so long as the probability of that event occurring is less than 1.
Let the following events be defined:
A:...
Forum:
Probability
09-23-2002, 04:50 PM
Replies:
6
Probability ? from Sitting Bull
Views:
157
Posted By
heihojin
Re: Independence
Keep in mind that the exact calculations for those events I defined are only correct if neither player has a flush draw in the given example, including the possibility of a four-flush on board. The...
Forum:
Probability
09-23-2002, 04:39 PM
Replies:
6
Probability ? from Sitting Bull
Views:
157
Posted By
heihojin
Independence
The word "independent" means, when describing events in the context of probability, that the information that one event occurs does not affect the probability that another event occurs. In...
Showing results 1 to 14 of 14
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