A Conundrum Faced on the Bubble
 

I faced this tough bubble situation on Party's 20+2 today. Sorry for the lack of the hand history. (Im reconstructing this from memory.)

Party 20+2 SNG. Blinds 100/200. 4 handed.

UTG (~700)
Button (~1500)
SB (~5200)
Hero (~600)

Hero is dealt T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in the BB.

UTG goes all in. Button folds. SB calls. Hero?

Obviously the problem is that Im in 4th chip position. Any overcard hitting from either UTG or SB would knock me out. However, if I fold, I would be left with only 400 chips, almost a guarantee to get knocked out of the tourny in 4th place. Winning would have me knock out UTG, but only give me 1800 chips to work with, which doesnt increase my chances for second/first dramatically.

Reads: I was 90 percent certain that UTG had two overcards to my T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]and Button had a weak Ace high, as he was playing that loose. Knowing that, would you still call? Or would you knowingly fold the best hand preflop?

Results to follow.

Re: A Conundrum Faced on the Bubble
 

I fold.
there are likely at least two overcards out there. Maybe someone has a small pair.
I'm sure someone will bring the math for us, but I don't think you are in good shape against two hands. You are probably a coin flip with one, but against two It
is two coin flips...., I think I'd hope for UTG to lose the hand and put you in the money.
that's my play. I wonder what the math says.

hyde

Re: A Conundrum Faced on the Bubble
 

i fold - UTG should push with some marginal hands in this position - he has to face the blinds next which will cripple his stack - so its likely that the SB isnt going to be a huge dog if at all

that means that you are a big chance to make the money from a crap position by just folding - the only time it would of been right to call is if UTG wins and you would of beaten him

if UTG wins your chances have got crappier but crap to crappier is not a big difference

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

Re: A Conundrum Faced on the Bubble
 

I fold as well but if I had 701 I would probably call.

Re: A Conundrum Faced on the Bubble
 

[ QUOTE ]
I was 90 percent certain that UTG had two overcards to my T T and Button had a weak Ace high, as he was playing that loose.

[/ QUOTE ]

no you weren't

Re: A Conundrum Faced on the Bubble
 

I much as one hates to finish fourth , I still call in this situation. UTG could easily have a rag Ace(trying to isolate you heads up) and SB who is a loose player could have a card smaller than 10 in his hand. In that senario you're a coin flip versus both of them. Even if there are three overcards you still have a +EV. And 1800 in chips is plenty. You can still win with any luck.