Party 15/30 Top pair but the board gets ugly
 

It's a good game. The main opponent in this hand is horrible. He sees about 50% of the flops.

I'm in the BB with red AJo, Horrible calls, fair button calls. I'm not raising AJo from the blinds as much these days so I just call.

Flop is 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I bet out, 50% calls, button folds.

Turn is: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

dillema.

This guy isn't going to fold any spade now. He'll raise me with a flush, a 9, a big spade, or straight draw.

Against this opponent I'm not folding top pair. Ever.

But I really don't want to pay 3 big bets to get to the showdown.

If I check and he bets I'm calling 100% of the time. I really don't want to be raised.

I also think he'll fold here if I bet and he has nothing. But if he catches any piece of the river card he'll call a river bet. Maybe he has a king or a queen, but he doesn't have both (he'd have raised PF w/KQ). So other than a spade he has few outs to beat me.

So I checked. He checked behind.

River is 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I bet he folds.

Should I have bet the turn with such a scary board?

-Scott

Re: Party 15/30 Top pair but the board gets ugly
 

raise preflop, bet the turn, not even close.

I dont think that board is so dangerous at all.
 

So go ahead and bet for *piiiip* sake!
Pay him off if he raises.

Re: Party 15/30 Top pair but the board gets ugly
 

[ QUOTE ]
This guy isn't going to fold any spade now. He'll raise me with a flush, a 9, a big spade, or straight draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

That sounds like just about the perfect situation in which to bet.

Re: Party 15/30 Top pair but the board gets ugly
 

[ QUOTE ]
raise preflop, bet the turn, not even close.

[/ QUOTE ]

raise?? [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] what about KQo? ATo? KJo? KTs? raise raise raise?

Re: Party 15/30 Top pair but the board gets ugly
 

I probably wouldn't raise pre-flop.

Re: Party 15/30 Top pair but the board gets ugly
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This guy isn't going to fold any spade now. He'll raise me with a flush, a 9, a big spade, or straight draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

That sounds like just about the perfect situation in which to bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand this answer, since Hero is either drawing fairly thin to a flush (four outs) or Opponent's 9 (two outs), or he is comfortably ahead of a flush draw or str8 draw. So Hero is equally likely to be raised when he is either ahead or behind. What's so good about this?

Re: Party 15/30 Top pair but the board gets ugly
 

i would raise KQo

Re: Party 15/30 Top pair but the board gets ugly
 

1 horrible limp, 1 button overlimp (weaker than average hands limp here). he didn't mention the sb who presumably limped, but they will throw $15 of dead money into the pot here often enough by folding after you raise. AJ is almost assurably the best hand.

Re: Party 15/30 Top pair but the board gets ugly
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand this answer, since Hero is either drawing fairly thin to a flush (four outs) or Opponent's 9 (two outs), or he is comfortably ahead of a flush draw or str8 draw. So Hero is equally likely to be raised when he is either ahead or behind. What's so good about this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Think about all the holdings his opponent could have. Assess how likely they each are. Decide how much you like giving a free card v. betting for each hand. Then figure out whether checking or betting is better.

So Hero is equally likely to be raised when he is either ahead or behind.

Even if that is true (which is not necessarily the case), what about all the times he will just get called by a worse hand?

If you thought your opponent's most likely hand is KsTd, would you like checking here?