saddam\'s capture???
 

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]..how much

will this add to markets next two weeks?

might be mother of all year-end rallies...

bush looking better/better/best..

gl [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Re: saddam\'s capture???
 

Several energy stock bulls figured it would be bad for their investments. There thinking was that the road to increased Iraqi production capacity would be easier. Don't know really but I suspect that the markets will not have that much of a reaction.

Re: saddam\'s capture???
 

I think it will be modest. The capture in the middle of the weekend will dull it out because people won't be able to have that knee-jerk reaction they would if it happened during trading. Instead people will sit back and realize that other than a morale booster it still isn't a cure-all for Iraq. People can already see that it isn't clearing a path to worldwide cooperation and it probably won't stop the insurgent attacks either. Barring those two consequences I would argue the capture is merely a psychological boost and nothing more. Even more restrictive is the fact that it happens in the middle of heavy shopping season so the morale boost probably won't even affect spending habits, whereas a mid-year capture might have gotten people to feel a bit more upbeat and maybe a light spending surge. I would say a 1-2% boost after the jump and then pullback is finished.

What I do think it will do is boost Europe a lot more than the US. It will give a little more hope to more cooperation and the fact that the non-participants are out congratulating the coalition probably bodes well for European sentiment. I don't think it will boost the dollar though, it is on a one-way path down for now.

Re: saddam\'s capture???
 

please, please, other than short term jump arounds which nobody can predict. the market is not going to be changed as his capture doesnt effect the long term income of really any companies.

Re: saddam\'s capture???
 

I'm betting on a 100 point increase on Monday. No reasoning just instinct.

Re: saddam\'s capture???
 

I wish they would let Saddam escape so they can capture him again!!! My ODP went up $1 per share overnight. Don't think it will last, unfortunately, but every little bit helps.

Re: saddam\'s capture???
 

1) FWIW, Debka claims Saddam was not captured but bought from people who kidnapped him to get the reward.
http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=743

2) bush looking better/better/best..
The election will be in about 11.5 months, tradeports puts Bush at 70% chance of winning. Possible problems for Bush are a fall in the US$ and poor employement numbers. The CPI and productivity numbers are bogus and worked. I think the medicare drug program he created may also come back to haunt him.