K8o + blind steal => ???
 

Stars 11+R 45k. No strong read on Villain, except he religiously defends his big blind.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

SB (t14030)
BB (t12710)
UTG (t24150)
UTG+1 (t23715)
MP1 (t12595)
MP2 (t44102)
MP3 (t4095)
CO (t22698)
Hero (t16375)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t600</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls t400.

Flop: (t1200) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: (t1200) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets t400</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1200</font>, BB calls t800.

River: (t3600) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets t8000</font>, Hero [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

I raised the turn with the plan of checking behind on the river, but I'm not sure what to make of this huge overbet. Thoughts? Alternate lines? Is it better to fold K8o to a blind defender, or is this fine (i've been raising any hand that is better than 50% against a random hand on the button -- i'd say i've raised probably 1/2 of the time it's been folded to me, but i've only shown down strong hands)?

-J.A.

Re: K8o + blind steal => ???
 

Why didn't you lead out on the flop? You were stealing, hit a pretty darned good flop for your marginal hand, and didn't bet? Were you planning to checkraise on the flop?

River is a tough call. I have to think you're beat unless he's on a pretty straight bluff. Your reads would be the determining factor then. I personally wait for a better hand than this to put half my remaining stack in the pot.

Re: K8o + blind steal => ???
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why didn't you lead out on the flop? You were stealing, hit a pretty darned good flop for your marginal hand, and didn't bet? Were you planning to checkraise on the flop?

River is a tough call. I have to think you're beat unless he's on a pretty straight bluff. Your reads would be the determining factor then. I personally wait for a better hand than this to put half my remaining stack in the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree about betting the flop. That said I think he may have hit his 5 on the flop. I'd fold.

Re: K8o + blind steal => ???
 

Bleh. I'd call the river and expect to be ahead a good portion of the time. Not many people overbet the pot here with a 5. And it is certainly offset by the people bluffing or having a jack.

Re: K8o + blind steal => ???
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why didn't you lead out on the flop? You were stealing, hit a pretty darned good flop for your marginal hand, and didn't bet? Were you planning to checkraise on the flop?

River is a tough call. I have to think you're beat unless he's on a pretty straight bluff. Your reads would be the determining factor then. I personally wait for a better hand than this to put half my remaining stack in the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Leading the flop probably would have been better. My thinking was that I was likely ahead, and the only card I'm really worried about hitting is an ace. I'd like to keep the pot moderately small (since I can't really stand too much heat), so I planned to check the flop, bet or raise the turn, and check behind on the river (or fold to a push on the turn).

-J.A.

Re: K8o + blind steal => ???
 

First of all, I really do not like a steal here. Yours and the blinds stacks are pretty big compared to the average and quite honestly I dont think the chips are worth the risk of stealing. I think preserving a tight image would be better for when the blinds become more significant.

Flop:

I think you need to make a standard c bet on this flop. You hit top pair and its probably good. Checking to induce a bet on the turn isnt horrible, but it can lead to some tough situations down the road.

Turn:

I dont like the raise. I think you can call here and call another moderate bet on the river. With a call here villian might put you on a pair of jacks and may try to move you off it with a bet on the river which you can safely call because it most likely will be a moderately sized bet. I think a raise here is bad because a 5 will not let you get to a cheaper showdown than if u had called.

River:

VERY CLEAR FOLD in my opinion. Its just not worth the risk. you will be in bad standing if you call and lose and will still be doing fine if you fold. This smells like a flopped monster to me (my official guess is A5). In my experience overbets like this are good hands more often than they are bluffs. I agree that putting villian on a good hand here is pretty tough, but barring any other reads I can't just put him on complete air. I feel like calling this bet would be a complete guess which is never a good idea to do.

Hope this helps.

Falker

Re: K8o + blind steal => ???
 

[ QUOTE ]
Stars 11+R 45k. No strong read on Villain, except he religiously defends his big blind.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why steal with K8, then? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: K8o + blind steal => ???
 

i would not steal here.

i would check behind on the flop, and then just call the turn. it's true that sometimes you'll let a worse hand catch up, but there aren't too many hands that have significant outs. this line lets you keep the pot small and extract money from a bluff or a J, but lose the minimum against a 5 or bigger K.

value bet the river if he checks it to you and expect to get called by a J.

Re: K8o + blind steal => ???
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Stars 11+R 45k. No strong read on Villain, except he religiously defends his big blind.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why steal with K8, then? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Because he'll call with worse hands and I'll have position. I'm not afraid to play a little poker with this guy, and K8 is definitely better than two random cards. It was really more of a value bet [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

However, as some other posters have stated, it's probably better not to get involved here. My stack is healthy and above average, and I have no reason to seek out such marginal situations with blinds at this level.

Re: K8o + blind steal => ???
 

[ QUOTE ]
i would check behind on the flop, and then just call the turn. it's true that sometimes you'll let a worse hand catch up, but there aren't too many hands that have significant outs. this line lets you keep the pot small and extract money from a bluff or a J, but lose the minimum against a 5 or bigger K.

value bet the river if he checks it to you and expect to get called by a J.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wasn't worried about him catching up -- I figured I was probably way ahead or way behind here. My line was chosen to keep the pot small and let me get away from the hand if necessary -- i figured this to be the cheapest way to get to a showdown. If Villain 3bets turn, I'm gone. If he calls the turn, I check behind on the river or call a reasonable bet (I wasn't expecting the huge overbet, though).

Why do you prefer to call turn and value bet or call the river instead -- is there some feature that makes that line better than this one?