NHL Action 10/27
 

This is my first hockey post, but after following some of your guys picks I am now into hockey.

I got:
Atl +140 ML vrs Pitt.
Pitt may be the worst team in hockey, they have yet to win a game I think Atl is more like 50/50 to win this game.

Montreal +170 ML vrs Ott
Montreal is to good of a team to get +170 on the ML

Van -1.5 +230 vrs Col
Van is hot and Col gives up alot of goals

I got 1 unit on each game and a round robin parlay of the 3 teams .5 unit on each leg 2's and 3's 2 units bet to win 20.3 units.

Anyone have any thoughts?

Re: NHL Action 10/27
 

I am just starting out trying to cap some NHL. I have been running the numbers through a spread sheet I put together a couple weeks ago and trying to come up with a number to compare to the actual lines. My formula does not take into account special teams, if a back up goalie is starting or if a team is overly tired or fresh, so those are all things I need to look at beyond just my number.

I am hoping though that my number is a good place to at least see when there might be value in a bet. My sample is still to small to see if I might need to make some adjustments but it seems to be on the right track so far.

I guess what I am trying to say is take these numbers with a grain of salt [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

So here is how my numbers came out on these games

Atl -127
Mont +161
Van -129 (I haven't quite figured out how to add the spread in yet)

I haven't posted much in the last year, but I might get back into it if we get some puck threads going.

Good luck tonight [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

TheRake

Re: NHL Action 10/27
 

I like those rake, dont know if there any good but I like the idea of getting +140 on Atl. when you think I should have got -127.

Re: NHL Action 10/27
 

yeah some of my numbers have come up quite a bit different than the actual lines. I am hoping this is a good thing [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Last night I had Buffalo at -386 and they lost LOL [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] but that was a very unusual line to this point.

The night before I had Montreal at -127 and the actual line had them as a pretty big dog. It came in, but I assume it was scewed because alot of the public money came in on phily.

As I said I am still working on it, but I hope it is a good starting point to look at the lines. I just put in the numbers and it spits out a line. We'll see how it goes.

TheRake

Re: NHL Action 10/27
 

Atlanta looking good so far 4-1 in the 1st [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: NHL Action 10/27
 

Uggg! I think I jinxed it. Penguins win 7-5 with 6 power play goals. Both these teams are terrible and Atlanta imploded and just totally lost control of this thing in the 2nd. Welcome to the new NHL where no lead is safe.