Set vs. flush draw
 

Ok here is the situation.

I am in a 5-5 NL ring game and I have a little over 1k in front of me.

In middle position I receive pocket kings (KcKs)...Everyone folds to me.. I come in with a $25 bet. Button (approx. $800 stack size and weak tight) calls me and the big blind (about 1k stack size and tight aggressive)also calls.

Flop comes

Kd 3d 6c

Beautiful flop

Big blind bets into me.. $150.. I raise to $500..

Button folds right away... big blind sits for a minute and calls my raise.

Turn card is 10d

Big blind pushes all in.. about $600 or so. I am in a predicament.. It took me 5 minutes, but I decided to fold.

I showed him I had a set and after the hand was done he told me he had 7d9d.. crap hand. Anyhow I didnt have the correct odds to call the turn in hopes of pairing the board correct? I believe I didnt. But did he have the correct odds of calling my raise on the flop?

Thanks for any input

Re: Set vs. flush draw
 

Of course you need better odds for your money to make any of those plays. As always, it depends. Their could be other considerations. Reminds me of the Clint Eastwood line "Feel lucky? Go ahead, make my day!".

Re: Set vs. flush draw
 

I think the turn laydown is probably a mistake, although not a big one

it's 600 to you with 1675 in the pot, so you need to win 26.4% of the time for a call to be correct; here's your odds against various hands for villain:

flush w/ 6d: 20.5%
flush w/out 6d: 22.7%
lower set: 97.7%
two pair: 100%
flush draw: 81.8%

if there's even a 5% chance he doesn't have a flush then you have odds to call, and in my experience it's almost impossible to put someone on a hand with more than 90% certainty

Re: Set vs. flush draw
 

When you raise to $500 on the flop (half you stack!) you have to be willing to get the rest in on the turn no matter what falls.

The Doc

Re: Set vs. flush draw
 

Why is that Dr?

Re: Set vs. flush draw
 

Ok Art so you are saying that it would be correct to call if I DIDNT know he had the flush? If we had x-ray vision and saw he had the flush, I have a 4.3 to 1 shot in pairing the board correct? Does that give me correct odds in calling when pot odds were 2.8 to 1? When the 10 came on the turn, he also had a gutshot straight draw at this point too... 4 additional outs

Re: Set vs. flush draw
 

If ur gonna muck this after putting half ur stack in on the flop, ppl will beat u like a red headed step child, and
telling that u folded a set is even worse, the only option is calling on turn, or your flop raises are gonna not get any respect, You played the hand fine until u mucked it.

Re: Set vs. flush draw
 

hmm, where to begin...

he doesn't need to his his gutshot on the river, he already has you beat

you're 3.4:1 to fill/quad, not 4.3:1

but that's the point, you don't have x-ray vision... trying to put your opponent on an exact hand and then acting accordingly is a classic beginner mistake in NLH... you should put him on a range of hands and assign probabilities to each and make your decision that way... and the math says if there's even a 5% chance he doesn't have a flush you should call

if you're really, really more than 95% sure he has a flush you can fold, but given the action I just don't think you can be that confident (after all, why did he call the flop???)

Re: Set vs. flush draw
 

Can you just show me the math where you got 3.4:1 to pair the board? Don't I have 12 outs?

Re: Set vs. flush draw
 

My mistake.. I have 10 outs to fill up or make quads..not 12... correct? Can you show me the math?