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-   -   Odds of making a four flush by the river (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=160214)

wayotogo 12-10-2004 03:59 PM

Odds of making a four flush by the river
 
I know the odds of making your flush with two cards to come is 35%. I read that everywhere. Using my method, which is obviously wrong, I get 38,7%. What am I doing wrong:

9/47 + 9/46 = 0,387

topspin 12-10-2004 04:17 PM

Re: Odds of making a four flush by the river
 
Try 1-P(not making a flush) = 1-(38/47)*(37/46) = 0.35.

Mike Haven 12-10-2004 04:31 PM

Re: Odds of making a four flush by the river
 
along the same lines as your calculations, try (9/47) + ((9/46) x (38/47))

it is only the 81% of the time that you don't hit on the turn that you are interested in on the river

wayotogo 12-10-2004 04:54 PM

Re: Odds of making a four flush by the river
 
[ QUOTE ]
along the same lines as your calculations, try (9/47) + ((9/46) x (38/47))

it is only the 81% of the time that you don't hit on the turn that you are interested in on the river

[/ QUOTE ]
Ah, I forgot taking that into account. Thanks!


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