My Underdog College picks (insane as they may be)
 

Taking some wild stuff this weekend.
Don't worry, my units for college football are smaller than for baseball. I admittedly have no clue but thought everyone might get amusement.


NW +399
HOU +13.5, +460
SMU +38


NW - At Northwestern I think the Wildcats have better than a 20% chance of beating mighty OSU. Maybe not by much more than 20%....but they still have a shot. Geez, OSU almost lost at home to Marshall. NW does have some offense. Also, this is a huge game for NW at home. For OSU, it's travelling to freaking Evanston and is not exactly what they would consider their biggest game of the year.

BTW, I also think NW has a good chance of losing by 30 but who cares.
Will try to get around to taking a look at this tomorrow and will lay another half-unit on NW if it goes up to +435 or so. I'm betting it now because I don't know if I'll be able to get to the lines again before kick-off.


HOU +13.5, +460 - Memphis defense has been pretty iffy. Gave up a ton of points to Arkansas St. and then lost at UAB. HOU played a semi-respectable game against Miami (and covered). And Memphis is no Miami. I think it's a 30% chance or more HOU wins this game straight-up.


SMU +38 - Yes, SMU is bad. Yes, Boise St is pretty good. But this a gosh-darn high line and I just don't think Boise is THAT freakishly good. Anyone know if it will be snowing in Idaho this weekend? Sure hope so.... could help keep SMU within 38. Go Mustangs!!


Okay...it is now officially time for everyone to laugh-away heartily and flame my picks. I expect (and demand) no mercy!!

Re: My Underdog College picks (insane as they may be)
 

Also taking Ball State +16.5 and +630 at Toledo.

And watch out now...I'm going to lay a half-unit on
Indiana +1021 vs. Michigan.

It's in Bloomington afterall...maybe they can pull off the miracle. UM hasn't been playing so great if you ask me. Blow-out Miami (Ohio), lose 28-20 to ND, barely beat SDST at home 24-21 and win semi-impressively at home vs Iowa 30-17 with Iowa turning it over 5x.


Ball State is bad....but it's not like Toledo is LSU.
Besides, Ball State won last week and played a very tough game with Boston College. They might make a game of this.


NW ML is down to +360 so I'm glad I grabbed it at +399.

The spread has moved from 13.5 to 11 so there's been some significant betting on NW it would appear. It's a night game, so there's still plenty of time for the line to dance around some more.


The SMU line is down to 37.5. So I'm sure glad I got the extra half-point on that one while I could!!!

Re: My Underdog College picks (insane as they may be)
 

Still drunk when you woke up this morning?

















j/k

Re: My Underdog College picks (insane as they may be)
 

Ok Bob, I took Shmu. At the very least, we should be winning the game for a longer time than those that took Boise. Run the clock, run the clock....

My pick of the day is FSU. See my earlier post on UNC possibly already writing it in for the season. If they have, it should be easy money. If they haven't, you still have a very good shot at winning this game, they barely beat Will and Mary for chrissakes.

Good luck.

Re: My Underdog College picks (insane as they may be)
 

Just wait for all my long-shots to actually come through...
After which The Drinks Are On Me!!!!!

Then I'll get drunk!!!

Re: My Underdog College picks (insane as they may be)
 

Went 2-6 and still made money because I had a little bit more on my 2 games that won. Way to go Randy Walker!!

Won - SMU spread and NW ML
Lost - HOU spread, HOU ML, Ball St Spread, Ball St ML, WV spread, Indiana ML

Re: My Underdog College picks (insane as they may be)
 

MB,
Time will tell if you're going to be a winning sports bettor or somebody who breaks even and bets for fun, but I know two things:

1) Your picks are well-reasoned, and
2) If you do end up with a winning track record, your humility will have a lot to do with it.

Congrats on NW, and keep up the good work.

Dan

Re: My Underdog College picks (insane as they may be)
 

I'm just as new to sports betting as you are, but my instinct tells me that the moneyline isn't as good an idea in College Football as it would be in other sports.

In CFB there tends to be relatively few upsets compared to how many games there are, and the ones that do happen are really big freakin' deals, season destroyers. The gap between the best and the worst D-I teams is really huge compared to the NFL and baseball. It seems to be a high variance way of betting, waiting for the one big score to make up for the times things went the way they're supposed to.

If the teams are closer together and in the same echelon, like a No. 7 versus a No. 20, then I could see it, but games like that +1000ish line...the potential for an upset is so small, that it's not even worth the huge odds they give. I think the time is better spent seeing whether the point spread is reasonable instead of buying the lottery ticket and being disappointed everytime you lose. The skill gap between the good and the bad in CFB is probably one of the biggest in sports, and that doesn't lend itself well to outright wins.

That is a newbie, uninformed opinion though, it's only my intuition from being a CFB fan. I gladly welcome any experienced bettors to smack some sense into the post where I ain't got none.

Re: My Underdog College picks (insane as they may be)
 

Well, when you are taking +400 area home dogs, I think they're a great play. You often see crappy teams like NW or Illinois showing up for a home game against a top ranked incoming team and cover and often win.

Re: My Underdog College picks (insane as they may be)..
 

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] gr8 call on northwestern..ohio st has not been a good night team over the years, and certainly had had close games against mediocre teams already..

cash them big tickets.....

yeah..

lol

gl

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]