The worst bubble play ever....
 

Party 30+3 Limit

Why couldn't I just leave it alone! Posted as a punishment FOR BEING SO STUPID.

Party Poker Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind t400 (4 handed)

BB (t2140)
UTG (t4725)
Button (t35)
Hero (t1100)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG folds, Button folds, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (2 SB, t800) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls t300 (All-In).

Turn: (2.87 BB, t2300) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (2.87 BB, t2300) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: 2300 BB (t2300)
<font color="#990066">Main Pot: 2.75 BB (t2200), between BB and Hero.</font>
<font color="#990066">Pot 2: 0.12 BB (t100), overbet by BB.[/color

Re: The worst bubble play ever....
 

Whats so bad about this play? Also I don't see any result.

Re: The worst bubble play ever....
 

you mean to tell me you would have played this the same way, when you have a virtual cinch on third place by folding preflop?

Re: The worst bubble play ever....
 

Ah, didnt see the button was that short stacked [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: The worst bubble play ever....
 

Only just noticed there is no result (damn that bisonbison)

If you haven't guessed, I walked into an opponent with AQ.

As crockpot pointed out, short stack was all-in next hand anyway and, just to rub salt in the wounds, got dealt 72o.

Apologies for the half-complete history. Will check more carefully next time.

If using the Chip Model
 

Using ICM, you need 3.2:1 odds to call

If you think he's pushing with:
top 67% of hands: you can only call with QQ,KK,AA
top 40%: KK,AA
top 25%: AA

Are my #'s right?

Re: The worst bubble play ever....
 

Well, if you think winning that pot will better your chances for a first place finish..why is winning SOME money that important? Go for greatest EV is what I've been told.

Re: The worst bubble play ever....
 

Can't say I wouldn't do the same thing. Based on this limited hand, there is no information to be gleamed from the BB behavior. Plus the reraise left you with only 300. I've seen worse bubble play

Re: The worst bubble play ever....
 

[ QUOTE ]
Well, if you think winning that pot will better your chances for a first place finish..why is winning SOME money that important? Go for greatest EV is what I've been told.

[/ QUOTE ]
EV of folding and holding your chips while letting the short stack blind out is MINIMUM 3rd place money. Any other strategy is just plain stupid, ESPECIALLY in a limit tourney, (which, by the action, i'm guessing this is.) Limp in to see the flop takes 22% more of your chipstack, allin preflop is an autocall situation for the BB if this IS no limit. I would and have folded QQ preflop in this situation.

Also, you have to take into account that even IF you win that pot AND DOUBLE THROUGH, a major consideration here, and not often likely with a hand like JT, in this situation, your EV does not improve significantly, as the BB will still have ~1100 left, but the big stack is at 4700. So, essentially, using my deadly hack math, you are (if you won that pot) about 22% chance to come in first, 58% chance to come in 2nd, and 20% chance to come in third.

So...
.22x5(1st place portion) 1.10
.58x3 1.54
.20x2 .40

1.1+1.54+.40= 3.04 EV WINNING that hand
Ok, now ev for FOLDING
9% win
21% 2nd
70% 3rd
.09x5= .45
.21x3= .63
.70x2= 1.40
.45+.63+1.4=2.48

So, winning that pot is worth barely over half a buyin IF YOU WIN.

Folding is worth OVER 2 buyins


EASY fold. If you think otherwise, your just plain wrong, and need to learn to incorporate this type of thinking if you ever plan on having long term success.

Kudos to Sherriff Fatman for publicly flaying himself to the err of his ways, lest he ever forget them, and for realizing he made a gigantic error, not saying "look how unlucky I got".

Re: The worst bubble play ever....
 

I made a smiliar play very early in a tournament the other day.

K/10o in a blind. 5 or 6 limpers. I call.
Flop is K/10/9 rainbow. Guy bets $30, I go all-in. He calls. Turns over J/Q. I'm dead.