Nine to the river - odds to hit a jackpot
 

OK, at the cardroom where I play, the bad beat jackpot is $100,000. And if that one gets hit, the next one is $100,000. And if that one gets hit, the next one is $80,000. Yeah, that's a lot of money getting dropped. The bad beat loser gets 50%, the winner of the hand gets 25%, and the rest of the table splits the rest, so w/ nine players, you'd get about $3500 just for sitting at the table.

A qualifying bad beat is quads or better beaten, both cards play in both hands. So, quads can be beaten by quads or a straight flush or a straight flush can be beaten by a higher straight flush. I believe if the kicker w/ quads is tied on the board, it qualifies. (ie: A2333 - one guy has a 45 straight flush, the other has A3).

There's a $4 drop ($3 + $1 JP) each round.

So here's the question. What is the probability of a jackpot being hit if all nine players go to the river every hand?

Because if it's better than 1 in 8000 (if everyone kept what they won) or 1 in 25000 (if the table split the jackpot evenly), maybe we should be checking it down every hand!

Re: Nine to the river - odds to hit a jackpot
 

But some hands have exactly 0 chance to qualify it in this setup.
For example, there is no board that will make 32o a qualifying holding.
People with suited connectors, pairs, Aces and Kings and maybe Queens will have much better odds than the lesser hands.

Bruce? Cyrus? Bueller, Bueller? anyone? (nm)
 

Bruce will be back when God returns from lunch
 

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