88 Overpair vs Maniac
 

From today's PS $50NL, I am 12th or so of 120 remaining. This is the fourth time villain's chips have been in the middle in 3 orbits or so and he has yet to show down a hand. I was originally playing this for set value, but can I call here?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (9 handed) converter

MP3 (t2635)
CO (t1315)
Hero (t5455)
SB (t6750)
BB (t4145)
UTG (t6735)
UTG+1 (t6770)
MP1 (t1670)
MP2 (t3745)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. UTG posts a blind of t100.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to t200</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls t200, BB calls t150, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (t700) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t500</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to t3545</font>, Hero ?????

Re: 88 Overpair vs Maniac
 

you're calling 3k to win 7.7k total, so you need to be about 40% to be even chip-wise. a lot of the times you're ahead it will be against Ax, so he'll have 10 outs; you're ~ 60%. when you're behind you'll have 2 outs ~ 8%. so you need to be 60% a little more than half, and some times you'll be 75% (if he has no gut shot, or 66), and against specifically 77 you're 92%. so you probably need to be ahead something like 40-45% of the time. if he's overbetting all-in frequently, or if he's been raising a lot in addition to the times he's gotten a-i, i think that tilts it towards a call.

it's obviously very player dependent, but i'm inclined to call. having 3 bigger stacks on your left makes me value a monster stack more. and if you lose, you're still alive.

Re: 88 Overpair vs Maniac
 

The min raise here is suspicious - I'm putting him on KK or QQ (with AA I think he might slowplay one more street) or a stealing hand (either something big or something weak). I also wouldn't be surprised if he flopped 2 pair while trying to steal with a hand like 53 and figured he might get paid off by an overpair. Unless he has pushed once or twice ATF in similar situations, I have to think I'm behind to a higher overpair or a lucky flop and I fold here. But maybe that's just me?

Re: 88 Overpair vs Maniac
 

[ QUOTE ]
The min raise here is suspicious - I'm putting him on KK or QQ (with AA I think he might slowplay one more street) or a stealing hand (either something big or something weak). I also wouldn't be surprised if he flopped 2 pair while trying to steal with a hand like 53 and figured he might get paid off by an overpair. Unless he has pushed once or twice ATF in similar situations, I have to think I'm behind to a higher overpair or a lucky flop and I fold here. But maybe that's just me?

[/ QUOTE ]

He's got a better overpair then you. Easy muck