Risk of Ruin over 500 hands
 

Assume I have a bankroll of 75BB for LLHE game. I'm assuming 15BB/100 SD and a profit of 1BB/100. How do you calculate the RoR over a set number of hands, say 500 hands?

Also, what's a rough ballpark SD figure for low limit NLHE online games? Just for the roughest of rough calculations.

Re: Risk of Ruin over 500 hands
 

Link with explanation by BruceZ

I believe this calculates overall risk of ruin -- ie, assuming that you play forever. ROR for a set number of hands will be less. I'm not sure if the thread discusses an exact calculation for this case.

Re: Risk of Ruin over 500 hands
 

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Also, what's a rough ballpark SD figure for low limit NLHE online games? Just for the roughest of rough calculations.

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That depends a lot on your playing style, and that of your opponents. At one level, my SD/100 is 57 big blinds/100 (28 PTBB/100). At another, it is 89 big blinds/100.

If you are short-stacked, your SD may tend to be lower. If you have a big stack and use it aggressively, it will be higher.

Re: Risk of Ruin over 500 hands
 

Yeah I figured it out assuming you play infinitely, but I was more interested in just 500 hands. The reason is I'm bonus whoring and you have to play 500 raked hands to clear. After that I plan on withdrawing the money (assuming I don't hit ruin) since I don't want to keep it on that site any longer.

Re: Risk of Ruin over 500 hands
 

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Yeah I figured it out assuming you play infinitely, but I was more interested in just 500 hands. The reason is I'm bonus whoring and you have to play 500 raked hands to clear. After that I plan on withdrawing the money (assuming I don't hit ruin) since I don't want to keep it on that site any longer.

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i see. well the infinite one will give you an overestimate, which may be good enough.

i forget how you solve the finite problem. you might try PMing BruceZ, or jason1990.

Re: Risk of Ruin over 500 hands
 

homer posted a short term risk of ruin formula here .

Re: Risk of Ruin over 500 hands
 

This is exactly what I was looking for. Thanks for the help guys.

Re: Risk of Ruin over 500 hands
 

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B = -(sigma^2/2u)ln(r)

r = exp(-2uB/sigma^2)

where u is your hourly rate
sigma is your hourly standard deviation
r is your desired risk of ruin
B is your bankroll

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GM and/or Bruce,

Does this equation apply to SNG tournaments as well? Let's say I have a Bankroll B. My money made per tourney is U, and my standard deviation per tourney is sigma. Would that equation still work for risk of ruin? And if not, is there an equation you could give me to figure this out? Thanks.

Re: Risk of Ruin over 500 hands
 

I'm not GM or BZ but yes, that equation should work. I've used it myself to estimate RoR for SNGs.

Paul

Re: Risk of Ruin over 500 hands
 

dammit, i meant to add "or Paul2432." Many thanks [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]