All In With Great Odds But With Chip Lead
 

I am playing a 5 man $50 + 5 tourney. Start with $1000. With 4 left I am D and have $2100. Other players have $2,000, $550 and $350 respectively. Third place gets $50 back, second $75 and first $125. I am dealt A9o. EP with $2800 raises $200. I call, everyone else folds. Flop = A,9, 4. Based on past raising and reads, I am confident EP has bullets only. EP raises $200, I re-raise another $200, he goes all in. Knowing that I have the best hand by far, do I call his hand and risk finishing out of the money or suck one up till the short stacks get blinded out (blinds were at 60-120? As a side note, I called, and the two 4's that came on the turn and river gave his A4 a full house to beat my two pair...and I lost my $50. Is this simply a risk tolerance question, or is there a set strategy I should be using?

Re: All In With Great Odds But With Chip Lead
 

This post is a little confusing. If the flop came A,9,4, the Turn a 4 and the River a 4, and he has A4, that gives him quads not a full house. And, the had two pair pre-flop not just Aces.

Re: All In With Great Odds But With Chip Lead
 

is there a set strategy I should be using?

Not calling EP raises with A9o would be a good start.

Re: All In With Great Odds But With Chip Lead
 

very confusing! [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: All In With Great Odds But With Chip Lead
 

Calling PFR with A9o is questionable at best. It doesn't look like you're in a blind, so this is a pretty easy fold for me. Let him have the blinds, or hope that one of them mixes it up with him.

Not clear on the flop, turn, river sequence.

If I had called with A9o, I think I would have been sunk here with top 2 pair. It would be real hard to put someone on a hand that could beat me with a A94 flop. Sure AA, 99 or 44 is possible, but being shorthanded I'd probably get into trouble here, especially since getting beat wouldn't bust me (or would it, your post is very confusing) - crippled yes, but still a chip and a chair. I'm hoping I'd recognize hie postflop reraise as trouble, but with top 2 pair, I'm probably blinded.

Re: All In With Great Odds But With Chip Lead
 

My bad. I had A9. Other player had A4. Flop came A,9,6. 4,4 on river and turn and his full house beat my 2 pair. The game (or even calling the BB is not the question, even though I had a dominating chip position lead and with only 4 people left I am surprised to hear I shouldn't call a BB with A,9o). Anyway, if you know you have a dominant hand, should I have folded anyway b/c I needed to protect my 3rd or second place finish, or should you always play the odds?

Re: All In With Great Odds But With Chip Lead
 

Over 98% of the time you will win that hand and wind up with over 80% of the chips on the table. Granted, you don't know for sure that he doesn't have trips, but you have to call that every time.

Re: All In With Great Odds But With Chip Lead
 

1. From your post you did not have a dominant chip lead, you had a marginal one over the opponent in question.

2. What raising hand, is an A9o going to be ahead of PF? At best, you have to put yourself as a mild underdog (either a big A or pocket pair).

3. Once you're in, the flop call is correct and you got unlucky.

Re: All In With Great Odds But With Chip Lead
 

You are way ahead of him: you are 97% to win and less than 1% to loose. Even if he had AK you are an 85% favorite. You could calculate the EV and figure out how much money, long term you win in this situation to see how good of a call it is. Stopping short of doing it myself, I would be willing to wager that calling isn't paying off much more than folding, just because what you gain by calling and winning isn't that much more valuable than folding and coasting to third.

Re: All In With Great Odds But With Chip Lead
 

Fold pre-flop.

Certainly call all-in on the flop. Of course you will occasionally lose to a set.

Your post has several confusing aspects to it. You say there are 4 left but you list out 5 amounts. You also don't list your position which is important. And you say there was a 4 on the flop/turn/river which would give him quads. Try to re-read your post before posting.

Ken Poklitar