Probability and Paul Harvey
 

While listening to Paul harvey at lunch today he recited the following short story. A man flips a coin every Sunday morning to determine if he goes to church or plays golf. This man is quoted as saying "Ocassionally I must flip ten times to go play golf".

My question is how many times in one year would he likely end up flipping the coin ten times (or more) in order to play golf rather than attend church? We must assume he randomizes his guesses, and does not call heads or tails only, until the coin lands on golf today.

Jimbo

Re: Probability and Paul Harvey
 

We must assume he randomizes his guesses, and does not call heads or tails only, until the coin lands on golf today.

Why?

Craig

Re: Probability and Paul Harvey
 

Because.......... Do you prefer I say I request you assume he does this in case it has relevance to the computation? If so this is why! If not this is still the reason why.

Jimbo

Re: Probability and Paul Harvey
 

P(1 flip) = 1/2
P(2) = 1/4
P(3) = 1/8
...
P(9) = 1/512

P(1) + P(2) + ... + P(9) = P(1-9) = .998046875

P(10 or more) = 1 - P(1-9) = .001953 (or 1/512)

So it happens about .713 times per year, or around twice every three years.

Is this the answer or am I missing something??

-- Homer

.101563 times/year
 

P(Has to flip ten times)=P(Church comes up nine times)

=(1/2)^9=1/512

1/512*Chances per year = 1/512 * 52 = .101563

Re: .101563 times/year
 

Many thanks to Homer and bad beetz.

Jimbo

Re: .101563 times/year
 

oops Jimbo...note that my answer is 7 times that of bad beets. I was thinking he did it every day, instead of only on Sundays. Hence, bad beets answer is actually correct....

-- Homer