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-   -   discounting your outs (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=378933)

11-15-2005 01:35 PM

discounting your outs
 
have a very general question???

and i realize everything depends on the table conditions and the pre-flop activity and the texture of the flop.

but assuming fairly loose-passive 5-6 seeing flop on average.... and an uncoordinated board on the flop, but with an Ace or King showing.

my question is say i get into the flop for "free" from small blind with 27o and the flop comes A79 rainbow.

with 6 callers, i'm assuming someone has the ace or the nine, almost certainly... so i have a pair of 7's and five potential outs..

my question is: should i really consider all five of those "outs" as good quality.... seems to me that the 2 outs for the third 7 are very good, but the outs for the second 2 don't seem that great.

i am always sitting there thinking i have 5 outs so i'm getting slightly more 8 to 1 (9 for 1) on my money... but this play just never seems to work on the second pair. doesn't hit or doesn't hold. obviously the 7 and 2 are not good cards (can't be really any other 2 pairs, other than complete oddities)

should i be discounting those 5 outs drastically? perhaps by 50%??

thanks in advance for any responses!!!

and obviously, any danger on the board and all those 5 outs may be questionable..

11-15-2005 03:50 PM

Re: discounting your outs
 
I would treat this weak draw as about a 3.5 outer, since many times you will hit your hand on the turn and still lose. I would call the flop if I were gettin 12-1 closing the action, If theres a flush draw on the board your draw is even worse, so make it 15-1 in that case.


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