Party Poker High Hand Jackpot, anyone know the odds?
 

Does anyone know what the EV per hand is of sitting at one of the new high hand jackpot tables?

If not, does anyone know the odds of being dealt a royal flush while using both hole cards and what the odds are of being at a table where someone else is dealt a royal flush using both hole cards (assuming 9 other players)?

Re: Party Poker High Hand Jackpot, anyone know the odds?
 

bump (even though this thread is still at the top)

We are estimating the value of this promotion at .154 per hand, which comes out to about $30 per hour 4-tabling $2/$4 (plus your winnings).

Is this like one of those promotions that we need to take advantage of as written about by Sklansky, Malmuth, & Co.?

EDIT: estimations in this thread

Re: Party Poker High Hand Jackpot, anyone know the odds?
 

Think you can only really do this through estimations.

If you assumed that you played every single royal flush possible hand you were dealt (10*4 of them), and saw to the river on each one, the odds against the royal flush (using both of your cards) is 64973:1. This works out to $0.154 per hand assuming a $10k payoff

However, I'd say that if you are attempting to play profitable poker, you'd end up folding maybe 15-20% of those 10 hands preflop, you'd be folding the flop 5% of the time, and other complications (pot not being raked, your raise resulting in no flop, etc.) would probably account for another 5-10% of the value of this.

Given all these decrements, I think a good figure for the value of the high hand jackpot is about (0.154)*(0.825)*(0.925)*(0.95) = $0.11/10000*(total jackpot*70%) per hand.

Next we equate this to the expected cost. If you are playing TAG, about 6-7% of your total hands will be winners (and will be raked). Therefore, you expect to pay (0.50)*(0.065) = 3.25 cents per hand.

Therefore, equating the two equations we get a target jackpot of about $4200. I think that it would be +EV to play these tables if the jackpot is greater than this amount.

Please correct any errors in my math/assumptions.

Re: Party Poker High Hand Jackpot, anyone know the odds?
 

Excellent work! I asked this about a few months back and got no real answers. thanks mannika