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-   -   Probability of getting the same pocket pair 4 times in a row? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=244216)

closer2313 05-03-2005 05:43 PM

Re: Probability of getting the same pocket pair 4 times in a row?
 
The odds of you being dealt a pocket pair is 16:1.
The probability of being dealt a pocket pair is 1/17.

FishHooks 05-03-2005 05:46 PM

Re: Probability of getting the same pocket pair 4 times in a row?
 
yea sorry, i missused the words odds, the odds of getting a pocket pair are 1:221 the probality is 1/220.

UMTerp 05-03-2005 06:01 PM

Re: Probability of getting the same pocket pair 4 times in a row?
 
Why is it 13/220? I really don't think that's right.

You get your first card. There are 51 remaining cards in the deck. 3 of them will pair your originial card. 3/51 = 1/17, correct?

Or another way: you'll get a specific pocket pair 1/221 times. There are 13 different pairs you can get. 13/221 = 1/17.

closer2313 05-03-2005 06:38 PM

Re: Probability of getting the same pocket pair 4 times in a row?
 
It was because people were using the term odds as a synonym for probability. But odds and probability are different things.
Probability for a specific pair is 1/221
Odds for a specific pair is 1:220
They took the odds and multiplied it by 13 pairs to get the probability for being dealt any pair which is incorrect.

1/221 * 13 = 1/17 is the probability of being dealt any pair.
1:16 is the odds of being dealt any pair.

BigBaitsim (milo) 05-03-2005 09:52 PM

Re: Probability of getting the same pocket pair 4 times in a row?
 
Posted this one the day after it happened. Was at a live 6/12 at Canterbury, when the 7-seat gets AA three hands in a row and get cracked all three times. This was with two different decks and a Shufflemaster. He left a few hands later, but only after he got KK cracked. Bad day.


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