A Hand to Make Ed Miller Cry

[DeathDonkey]

Horrible river fold right? Simply horrible. I thought at the time no way could I overcall in this situation. Horrible. In my defense, I didn't know the fellow on my immediate left was a complete LAG as this was the first orbit at this table for me. Still, horrible. Right?

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP3 calls, CO folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

River: (14.50 BB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 16.50 BB

Results in white below: <font color="white">
UTG+1 shows Js 2s (two pair, threes and twos).
MP3 shows 5s 5d (two pair, fives and threes).
Outcome: MP3 wins 16.50 BB. </font>

-DeathDonkey

[thirddan]

im folding to the turn raise...

[blackaces13]

If you're not gonna call the river be then fold to the turn raise.

[DeathDonkey]

Completely agreed in retrospect. One thing I forgot to mention which I think is important and just remembered about this hand...when I bet the turn and was raised, he had obviously checked the raise button before I even bet because it occurred instantly. This made me think he was completely bluffing, my only real hesitation was the 3rd player calling 2 cold in that spot. If the other player had folded the river I would have certainly called.

-DeathDonkey

[Randy Burgess]

I'm going to focus on one point: Why the flop raise with a limper to you and 88?

In some games an opening raise w/88 is fine, but you are talking microlimits where you may well get loose callers holding any Ace, King, even any suited face, not to mention assorted pairs; and if they spike their top card they're usually calling down no matter how bad their kicker. So if any overcard comes you're not going to know what to do. And with the limper already in front of you, there's no way you're stealing here.

Sure, this time you folded the winner - but I think that's looking at one result rather than whether your overall strategy was correct for a medium pair like 88 at a limit that typically plays very loose after the flop. Go for the set instead.

[spamuell]

Hi Randy,

Your argument for not raising 88 pre-flop is:

[ QUOTE ]
you may well get loose callers holding any Ace, King, even any suited face, not to mention assorted pairs

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you saying you don't want to get more money in the pot when people are going to call you with worse hands? Furthermore, this argument could well be applied to 99, TT, and really any pair which isn't aces. Are you saying one shouldn't raise with these hands pre-flop? Where is your cut-off?

[Matty]

[ QUOTE ]
he had obviously checked the raise button before I even bet because it occurred instantly.

[/ QUOTE ]I think a player checking the "raise any" button is a sign of strength, not weakness.

Checking the "bet" button could be seen as a bluff though.

I'd like to hear Mike Caro's analysis on that. =]

[Randy Burgess]

Even when your 88 is the best hand preflop, if you're up against enough loose players, it quite often will become the worst hand on the flop. And remember with loose players you probably won't shake a lot of them till they see the turn card, too - even if all they hold is Ax. Go read the Morton's Theorem thread in Poker Theory if you haven't already.

And if you want a greater authority than me, recall that Sklansky has written that in loose games, you'll win fewer pots but the pots you do win will be bigger. Here you clearly gain by letting in as many preflop callers as possible so you'll have more action if you hit your set.

As to where I'd draw the line - specifically in the situation just addressed, where there's one limper already in and it's quite a loose game, I'd consider the borderline to be somewhere around TT. If I felt I could limit the field a little more, now I'm dropping my borderline down to 99. And in a tight game, the 88 raise might be fine, but only if I was opening the pot.

Also remember that if you don't raise preflop, you'll have more leverage to raise people out on a small card flop than you would if you'd built the pot. It depends how loose the game is playing. With better (e.g. tighter) players, you'll raise more preflop, with worse (looser) players you'll raise less.

I know this goes against the grain of the "aggression is always best" mantra, but it's a question of trying to maximize profit, not live up to a slogan.

[JudgeRW]

Agree 100% here. In this position, with one limper in front I'm trying to maximize the # of people in the pot and hoping to spike the set. Those 8's are NOT going to hold up in most hands at the micro limits. Simply too many callers (even callers of an early position raise). My cut off would also be TT in this spot (though I'd like J's a LOT more).

[Michael Davis]

If they're calling with A-rag and K-rag and such, that's more the reason to raise with 88. These guys are calling with terrible hands. And if they're calling with these hands, you're going to get damn near enough callers that your raise is almost justified on set chance alone. 88 will win a few pots without hitting a set, and that, IMO, swings it to a raise, generally.

I don't mind if everyone folds, and I don't mind if everyone calls. That's why I raise with 88.

-Michael

[Randy Burgess]

By the same logic you should raise with 77. And if with 66, why not 66? Etc., etc. As someone else posted, where's the cutoff?

For another post I just happened to be looking at a Sklansky essay in "Getting the Best of It" in which he discusses his so-called horse race paradox. The centerpiece of the essay as far as poker is concerned is how to play fair-to-good hands that may be in trouble in multiway pots. At one point he says, "66 in hold'em will probably show a profit against less than 2 or more than 5 opponents. This anomaly arises from the fact that two sixes should stand up against 1 player, but otherwise probably needs to make three sixes to win."

In a very loose game this concept rises up from 66 to swallow up hands like 77 and 88 and even 99 quite easily. Yes, 88 will win some pots unimproved - but so will 22. That by itself isn't sufficient to swing your action to a raise here.

Also, you say you don't mind if everyone calls or if everyone folds. The problem with raising in this specific situation (one limper already in) is that you'll put yourself right in the middle - you likely won't get a family pot, and you sure aren't going to get everyone to fold. You'll get just enough callers to make you a dog if you don't hit your set.

Just to make clear, I don't consider it a heinous crime to raise here - it's a fairly small mistake. I'd be more likely to consider it in a game where I had more control over my opponents after the flop, say in a good live game.

[sublime]

Hey DD-

With an unknown opponent, I would fold to the turn raise.

The preflop raise debate is not as important as it seems, raising here is something I would do more often than not.

[sublime]

Welcome back Spammy /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[spamuell]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd consider the borderline to be somewhere around TT

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? Your reasoning for not raising 88 was that you may well get loose callers holding any Ace, King, even any suited face, not to mention assorted pairs . Surely all of this still applies to TT?

[ QUOTE ]
Even when your 88 is the best hand preflop, if you're up against enough loose players, it quite often will become the worst hand on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

So should I not raise AK pre-flop?

[ QUOTE ]
And remember with loose players you probably won't shake a lot of them till they see the turn card, too - even if all they hold is Ax.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is true but I don't see how it is connected to raising pre-flop. Are you saying that you give up your pre-flop advantage so that they are making more of a mistake by hanging around until the turn? I think there is probably more EV from raising pre-flop than there is gained by your opponents calling incorrectly on the flop although I have not done the EV calculations (and, to be honest, I don't really know how).

[ QUOTE ]
Go read the Morton's Theorem thread in Poker Theory if you haven't already.


[/ QUOTE ]

I hadn't read that particular thread although of course I've heard of Morton's Theorem from my old RGP days. I don't really see how it's connected to whether or not you raise pre-flop where people are going to call you with worse hands. Once again, I suppose it comes down to whether the EV you lose pre-flop is made up by your opponents mistakes after the flop, and I can't prove that it is. I would really appreciate it if someone could show how to do these calculations.

[ QUOTE ]
Just to make clear, I don't consider it a heinous crime to raise here - it's a fairly small mistake. I'd be more likely to consider it in a game where I had more control over my opponents after the flop, say in a good live game.


[/ QUOTE ]

I pretty much agree with you and I often limp with 88, I just objected to the term "preflop no-no", because I don't think it's a major mistake and it should sometimes be done, and also because I don't really think it helps talking to people as if they are three years old, cutiekins.

[spamuell]

[ QUOTE ]
Welcome back Spammy /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, I've been reading some of your posts, you seem vastly better than when I left.

[DeathDonkey]

Hi Grey,

In my limited experience, I completely disagree. I would love some other viewpoints on this online tell, but don't want to derail this thread too much. This is a textbook case of acting strong when weak, especially valid if a potential scare card hits the board.

-DeathDonkey

[Randy Burgess]

A key factor with pocket pairs when thinking of a cutoff point is the number of potential overcards callers are likely to hold as a group. I hope that's clear from my post; if not it's an easy inference.

As for AK, I think we can all agree it plays differently than a small-to-medium pocket pair.

And as for the title of my post, no condecension was intended.

[DeathDonkey]

Hi Randy,

I consider this to be a borderline raise. If there were two limpers instead of one, I would definitely have limped this hand. However if there were 6 or 7, I would have raised again (which I believe is a point you made in another post in this thread). However, with one limper, I have the chance to narrow the field and play my made hand against a limper I'm surely ahead of, and possibly some random blind hand. Now I realize this is best case scenario, but if these "loose callers" are calling two cold with singleton Aces, Kings, or whatever, then I am certainly not the one making the mistake in the hand, they are. Why not give them the opportunity to make a bad call for two bets when they will certainly call for one bet and I have them beat right now?

In summary, my limping/raising strategy at this limit preflop goes something like this:

One limper: raise 88 and above, probably limp 77 and below but depends on my read on the limper.

Two limpers: raise probably 99 and up, limp 88 and below, depends on reads for these close ones again.

Three - 5 limpers: raise TT and up, call with the rest.

More than 5 limpers: raise any pocket pair.

Kosher?

-DeathDonkey

[Randy Burgess]

Well, I don't entirely agree - I'm a notch or two more cautious for the reasons I've given. Even though individual callers are making a mistake with Ax and Kx, it's what their actions as a group do to your hand that matters.

But I like that you've thought about this and have a plan. That's probably more important in the long run, as your game will keep evolving and improving.

[spamuell]

[ QUOTE ]
More than 5 limpers: raise any pocket pair.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think it is profitable to raise 22 here. Why do you think it is?

[Vern]

I fold to the turn raise since it gets back to me with UTG+1 calling two. Against unknown opponents, I think I am behind. If after a couple dozen hands I see them consistently play this way, I would start re-raising on the turn. Either way, the turn and river overcalls are both bad ideas unless you have a very good read on both the bettor/raiser and caller.

I also raise this PF from this position most of the time as I have the chance to limit the field, get the callers in front of me if not buy the button and if the only time you raise is when you get Aces or Kings, you get to easy to play against. Oh and yes, 88 is my cutoff in micro and low limit games for a raise from MP /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Vern

Edited to add 88 PFR comments