01-24-2002, 10:12 PM
Is this game beatable?
One of Sweden’s fist legal casinos opened in southern Sweden last December. Much to my surprise, they decided to spread structured Hold’em from the fist day. A $10-$20 Hold’em (100 Kr – 200 Kr in Swedish currency) game has been running since then, almost every night, between 8 pm and 4 am. The game is the best I’ve played in by far, and I’ve played $3-$6 in LA! So what’s the catch? It’s this: much like in Amsterdam, they rake 5% with a $20 cap! (This can be explained, for their advisors are Dutch.)
But as I said, the game is extremely good. Most Swedes have only played draw poker, so 95% of the poker players played their first hand of Hold’em in the casino. Calls and raises with hands like Kx are commonplace. I’ve seen people call all the way with no pair, no draws, and no over cards many times. Frankly, I know only one player who plays tight enough.
It’s illegal to tip the dealers.
So can anyone beat this game?
This is what I think:
According to Mason Malmuth’s Poker Essays, an expert player can win two big bets an hour in a typical $3-$6 game in Las Vegas. The Swedish game is $10-$20, but the game is played like it was low limit.
Since the game Swedish game is half as fast as the American games (due to inexperienced personnel and players), this would reduce the win rate by half. But since the Swedish game is so good, I think that an expert can make more than one big bet / hour, not considering the rake.
So how much does our expert pay in rake? Since you play very few hands, considering the rake and the quality hands needed to win against a large field, I estimate that you win perhaps every 20th hand (the game is ten handed). Let’s say the average pot is $300. The rake you pay / hour would be:
15 (hands/h) / 20 (hands/h) * $300 * 5% = $11,5
So if you pay $11,5/h in rake, and you make slightly over one big bet every hour without rake, you could expect an hourly rate of more than $10!
Conclusion: This heavily raked game can be beaten by an expert and perhaps, if the game remains this good, by any good and very tight Hold’em player.
Comments are much appreciated. Perhaps I’ve made a few logical mistakes. I made all this thinking while writing the post.
/ Ulf, Sweden
One of Sweden’s fist legal casinos opened in southern Sweden last December. Much to my surprise, they decided to spread structured Hold’em from the fist day. A $10-$20 Hold’em (100 Kr – 200 Kr in Swedish currency) game has been running since then, almost every night, between 8 pm and 4 am. The game is the best I’ve played in by far, and I’ve played $3-$6 in LA! So what’s the catch? It’s this: much like in Amsterdam, they rake 5% with a $20 cap! (This can be explained, for their advisors are Dutch.)
But as I said, the game is extremely good. Most Swedes have only played draw poker, so 95% of the poker players played their first hand of Hold’em in the casino. Calls and raises with hands like Kx are commonplace. I’ve seen people call all the way with no pair, no draws, and no over cards many times. Frankly, I know only one player who plays tight enough.
It’s illegal to tip the dealers.
So can anyone beat this game?
This is what I think:
According to Mason Malmuth’s Poker Essays, an expert player can win two big bets an hour in a typical $3-$6 game in Las Vegas. The Swedish game is $10-$20, but the game is played like it was low limit.
Since the game Swedish game is half as fast as the American games (due to inexperienced personnel and players), this would reduce the win rate by half. But since the Swedish game is so good, I think that an expert can make more than one big bet / hour, not considering the rake.
So how much does our expert pay in rake? Since you play very few hands, considering the rake and the quality hands needed to win against a large field, I estimate that you win perhaps every 20th hand (the game is ten handed). Let’s say the average pot is $300. The rake you pay / hour would be:
15 (hands/h) / 20 (hands/h) * $300 * 5% = $11,5
So if you pay $11,5/h in rake, and you make slightly over one big bet every hour without rake, you could expect an hourly rate of more than $10!
Conclusion: This heavily raked game can be beaten by an expert and perhaps, if the game remains this good, by any good and very tight Hold’em player.
Comments are much appreciated. Perhaps I’ve made a few logical mistakes. I made all this thinking while writing the post.
/ Ulf, Sweden