01-24-2002, 03:33 PM
OK, the last hand I posted, the hand reading was trivial, so I slowplayed a set. This hand I used a similar strategy, though th circumstances are very different. This may fall under the category of "giving opponents too much credit".
Tough online game. UTG limps (not a super tough player). I raise in cutoff with KdKs. BB calls, UTG calls.
Flop is TcTsQc. BB bets, UTG raises. I call.
I see little reason to 3 bet here. I also think it's unlikely either player is drawing, as the chances of winning with a bet are minimal, and the chances of a strong hand being out are large.
If I 3 bet, what to do If someoen plays back at me?
Turn is 2h. BB checks. UTG bets, I call, BB calls.
This was a tough decision. I read UTG for a Q with a kicker K or smaller. If I raise this player, he may now fold, or fold if I bet the river also. The BB worries me. He most likely has a Q also, but could have a ten. If I raise here, he may not call with a queen, and he may not reraise with a ten. If I raise and knock out a Q, I have prevented 3 outs from continuing if it's AQ, and nothing if it's QK or QJ. My raise may make UTG drop a Q, since it is unlikely his kicker is an ace. I call to get an overcall, even though I know I have the bettor beat.
River is 4d. Checked to me, I bet, both call. (This means that I win, of course.)
For the record, BB had AQ, UTG had KQ.
Questions:
Is the BB going to go to a showdown thru anything? Will UTG do the same? If so, should my concern of a ten being out reduce my aggression?
Here is my analysis of the turn, please critique:
UTG almost cretainly has a Qx. This is my read, which I gave 90% confidence to once the turn came. The rest of the time, I gave him a ten.
If I raise the turn and BB folds, will UTG call or fold with a Q?
I thought it was 60/40 call/fold. A ten 3 bets 70%, waits for the river or wimps out 30%.
If I raise the turn and the BB calls cold, does UTG call also with a Q? I thought it was 70/30 fold/call. This nets me 2/3 bets on the turn, and 1/2 on the river.
If I raise the turn, does BB call with Qx? I put this at 20%. If BB has AQ, I put this at 80%.
If BB has AQ, does he call the river after cold calling the turn - again, 80% I thought.
If I call the river and they check to me, would they both call? I put this at 80%.
I was hoping that the BB had Qx, and I could get them each to keep playing and pay off their one outers. If the BB has AQ, he gets 3 outs he might not get if I raise the turn. But he will also call on the river, so in some cases he is paying 2 bets for the 3 outs, so I want him in.
As for UTG, it would be fabulous to keep him around. This was another reason to not raise the turn - I may miss out on his river call. So it might be costing me 4 out to get 3 bets from these players. This is too high a price to knock them out.
However, if I have grossly overestimated their hand reading, I may miss out on an extra turn bet from each of them if they both call me down. This is a possible scenario.
On the other hand, if I have grossly overestimated my hand- reading, I am likely against a ten, and passive play will save me a bet or 2.
Any comments appreciated.
Dan Z.
Tough online game. UTG limps (not a super tough player). I raise in cutoff with KdKs. BB calls, UTG calls.
Flop is TcTsQc. BB bets, UTG raises. I call.
I see little reason to 3 bet here. I also think it's unlikely either player is drawing, as the chances of winning with a bet are minimal, and the chances of a strong hand being out are large.
If I 3 bet, what to do If someoen plays back at me?
Turn is 2h. BB checks. UTG bets, I call, BB calls.
This was a tough decision. I read UTG for a Q with a kicker K or smaller. If I raise this player, he may now fold, or fold if I bet the river also. The BB worries me. He most likely has a Q also, but could have a ten. If I raise here, he may not call with a queen, and he may not reraise with a ten. If I raise and knock out a Q, I have prevented 3 outs from continuing if it's AQ, and nothing if it's QK or QJ. My raise may make UTG drop a Q, since it is unlikely his kicker is an ace. I call to get an overcall, even though I know I have the bettor beat.
River is 4d. Checked to me, I bet, both call. (This means that I win, of course.)
For the record, BB had AQ, UTG had KQ.
Questions:
Is the BB going to go to a showdown thru anything? Will UTG do the same? If so, should my concern of a ten being out reduce my aggression?
Here is my analysis of the turn, please critique:
UTG almost cretainly has a Qx. This is my read, which I gave 90% confidence to once the turn came. The rest of the time, I gave him a ten.
If I raise the turn and BB folds, will UTG call or fold with a Q?
I thought it was 60/40 call/fold. A ten 3 bets 70%, waits for the river or wimps out 30%.
If I raise the turn and the BB calls cold, does UTG call also with a Q? I thought it was 70/30 fold/call. This nets me 2/3 bets on the turn, and 1/2 on the river.
If I raise the turn, does BB call with Qx? I put this at 20%. If BB has AQ, I put this at 80%.
If BB has AQ, does he call the river after cold calling the turn - again, 80% I thought.
If I call the river and they check to me, would they both call? I put this at 80%.
I was hoping that the BB had Qx, and I could get them each to keep playing and pay off their one outers. If the BB has AQ, he gets 3 outs he might not get if I raise the turn. But he will also call on the river, so in some cases he is paying 2 bets for the 3 outs, so I want him in.
As for UTG, it would be fabulous to keep him around. This was another reason to not raise the turn - I may miss out on his river call. So it might be costing me 4 out to get 3 bets from these players. This is too high a price to knock them out.
However, if I have grossly overestimated their hand reading, I may miss out on an extra turn bet from each of them if they both call me down. This is a possible scenario.
On the other hand, if I have grossly overestimated my hand- reading, I am likely against a ten, and passive play will save me a bet or 2.
Any comments appreciated.
Dan Z.