TPTK -- worth a call at the river here?

[MisterKing]

Main opponent has been switching gears constantly, but not in a way that suggests that there's any method to his madness. For the most part, he's been hemmoraging chips for the past hour. Not sure if my call on 5th street was the right play, but the pot odds seemed to dictate that I do so.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, MP folds, Button calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB <font color="purple">(Bi-Polar Dude)</font> calls, Button calls.

Flop: (6 SB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Bi-Polar Dude calls, Button calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Bi-Polar Dude raises</font>, Button calls, Hero calls.

River: (10.50 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">Bi-Polar Dude bets</font>, Button calls, Hero calls.

My thinking: crap, he's holding a 10, or perhaps even ATx. Hell, he could have Ax suited in diamonds. The BB's previous play left me unconcerned about him, as he usually came along on second pair crap kicker.

Final Pot: 13.50 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 13.50 BB, between Hero, Bi-Polar Dude and Button.</font> &gt; <font color="white">Pot won by Bi-Polar Dude (13.50 BB).</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
Hero shows As Kd (one pair, kings).
Bi-Polar Dude shows Jc 2h (two pair, jacks and twos).
Button shows 8c Qc (one pair, queens).
Outcome: Bi-Polar Dude wins 13.50 BB. </font>

[fyodor]

My experience at 1/2 and 5/10 SH at Party is that the Turn Raise generally means TP is beat. Sometimes it's not, and I don't have an exact figure, but definitely more than 50% of the time it's beat. If you're going to call the raise though you may as well call the river as well. Either you believe you're beat or you don't.

Even if you choose to believe that the Turn Raise means your TP is beat you can't go folding it all the time. TPTK is as good a time to call as any.

[vector]

I would have played it just like you I suspect. However, given the time to think about it is quite an interesting (and common) situation.

You are drawing dead if the raiser has better than two pair after turn, which isn't all that likely, but a possibility.

Other reasons he may have raised is he played the flopped flush draw oddly, or picked up a gut shot straight, perhaps with some kind of pair. Again, these seem not that likely, in fact I am going to take the liberty of saying these occasions (where you are still ahead) cancel out the times when you are behind to better than two pair (my argument probably falls over right here).

Which leaves the two pair combos: J2, 92, KJ, K2, K9, J9.

You have outs as follows against these:

J2,92: 8 outs, you are 5.75:1 to improve to beat on river.
K2: 9 outs 5.1:1 to improve.
K9: 6 outs, 7.5:1 to improve.
KJ: 3 outs, 15.3:1 to improve.

The pot is is offering 8.5:1 to call the turn raise, which makes calling correct for 4 of the possible two pair hands he has, with only KJ really screwing you here.

So, I think calling the turn raise is close to mandatory, but its calling to improve given correct odds, not a teeth clenched call down just yet.

Unfortunately you don't improve on the river, and the flush comes along with pretty obvious straight possibilities. Lets not forget that button, who has called along since the flop - I would fear the flush more from him.

When the button just calls on the river I might feel a little better, but he could be hoping for a raise from you, or maybe he is just passive.

Meanwhile bi-polar dude is still ahead if he had two pair, and the best you could hope for, a worse K (K8 or less) is looking pretty unlikely.

But of course now you are getting 12.5:1 to close the action. So if just 1 time in 12 you are ahead here, its correct to call.

This makes it an easy call in my opinion, though of course you fully expect to lose. Had the button raised its an easy fold.

So um, yeah I play it same as you /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Sorry for the opus, I found it really interesting to work through this one. Hopefully my calculations aren't completely off. (Probably some of my assumptions are).

[MisterKing]

Thanks for the insight, Vector. I hadn't looked at it as scientifically as you did, but the call on the turn does seem mandatory to me. This is in part due to the odds I have to improve, and in part because the raiser could be full of crap, as so many of the players at 1/2 are. It is amazing how often people try to bluff in low limit poker...

As for the river, I called with every expectation of losing. I just HAD to see the two pair, and sure enough there it was. I haven't looked at my PT data yet, but I'd guess my desperation call earns me the pot better than one time in 12, so I consider it the right play. Glad to hear you more experienced folks agree. This would, of course, all be very different if the BB was more of a threat, but as I mentioned up front, he had no clue.

[fyodor]

Isn't 22 also a possible holding the way he played it? JJ and KK are unlikely given he only called PF.