Easy call, or foolish call?

[fnord_too]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (3 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="C00000">Hero (t1130)</font>
<font color="C00000">Button (t784)</font>
<font color="C00000">SB (t6086)</font>

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="CC3333">Button raises to t784 (All-In)</font>, <font color="CC3333">SB raises to t1184</font>, Hero calls t730 (All-In).

Flop: (t3098) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players, 2 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t3098) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players, 2 all-in)</font>

River: (t3098) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players, 2 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t3098
<font color="green">Main Pot: t2352 (t2352), between Hero, Button and SB.</font> &gt; <font color="white">Pot won by SB (t2352).</font>
<font color="green">Pot 2: t692 (t692), between Hero and SB.</font> &gt; <font color="white">Pot won by SB (t692).</font>
<font color="green">Pot 3: t54 (t54), returned to SB.</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
Hero shows Kd 3h (high card, king).
Button shows Ad 7s (one pair, sevens).
SB shows Th Ac (flush, ace high).
Outcome: SB wins t3098. </font>

I thought it was an easy call, since I have a chip lead over the first all in guy if we both get knocked out I still take second. It was an easy call if the big stack didn't move in over the top obviously, is it still and easy call for all my chips?

[Navers]

K3 is a very weak hand, virtually the only hands you can expect to win against are K2 and QX and below. Chances of your opponent having an extremely bad hand is very limited considering the fact that he is all-in. Your K3 isn't even suited to give you a little boost. Even if you think that the button has a bad hand, yours is crappy as well. Also, with the small blind pushing you all-in, he's ready to take down the opponent guaranteeing you 2nd place. You should be 95% sure that any hand the blind is calling the button with is better than K3o. Calling with K3o seems like a gamble.

[caretaker1]

I agree with Navers. Although the short stack may have been raising with any 2 decent cards at that point, a isolation reraise by the SB should have rang bells that he had the goods. K3 is a weak heads up hand in this spot. I think folding is the right play.

[Jman28]

I think this isn't as bad as the others think.

Your point about having the chip lead over the short stack is a good one that I agree with. If the big stack beats you both, you take 2nd.

Also, even though K3o is weak, here it's a favorite over QJs or JTs, which could very well be an all in at this point for the short stack.

You're probably behind the large stack in the hand, but if you fold, and let them play it, either the big stack knocks him out, giving you very small chances for 1st, or he loses and you're the short stack. This isn't horrible, but it is if you would've won if you called.

If you call and get lucky, you now have a decent shot to take first. If it were me, I wouldn't know what to do here. I think I'd fold just because I like to be the one pushing all in rather than calling it.

I don't think it was foolish though.

[Navers]

even if you are a tiny favorite over hands like QJsuited, you still shouldn't make the play. Even if you knew your opponent had QJsuited and you were a 1% or so favorite over his hand, why risk your chips on a coinflip? Maybe if he's significantly better than you, you'd have a better shot with a coinflip, but chances are if you made it to the top 3 you have skill enough to beat him, even if it might be a little hard given his chip count.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
Even if you knew your opponent had QJsuited and you were a 1% or so favorite over his hand, why risk your chips on a coinflip?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you knew you were a 1% favorite, you should call because you just posted a huge blind, more than 1/3 of your stack. If this were heads-up, you should call as a 2:1 underdog.

[Girazze]

With the SB not only calling the button's all-in but also raising enough to cover YOU, he gave you a big enough clue to stay out of his way.

[slogger]

It's probably close (i.e., not foolish) because of the T400 BB, but I think calling is wrong here. Sure, 700 is not a ton of chips and you will be likely to finish 2nd (rather than first) should big stack win the hand, but the thing you're not taking into account is that you can still be knocked out 3rd, even if small stack wins the hand (if your hand is 3rd best - fairly likely scenario given the SB's push). And even when you're 2nd best and short stacks wins, you're left with the same amount of chips as you would have if you had folded (with no risk of busting).

Generally, I believe that where you have an opportunity to risk a chance at 2nd in return for a significantly greater shot at 1st, you should take it. I just don't think this play will give you that boost often enough to compensate for the risk of giving up the near certainty that you'll place at least 2nd if you fold.

[Jason Strasser]

There is some really bad advice here.

This seems to me like a call. Chip EV wise, there is no doubt this is correct. You are getting better than 3:1 on your call. So if your opponents showed QQ and JJ this would be absolutely correct. Frankly the big stack doesnt need much to raise here, and the other small stack doesnt need much to call. Folding does you harm, because what if you had a hand that beat the other small stacks all in, but the other small stack happened to beat the big stack? That situation is a nightmare, almost locking you into third place.

I really dont think you can fold here. If they showed you AK and 33. Ok, fine, maybe u can let it go, but this is a call everyday for me.

[slogger]

Jason, I understand the chip EV part of your response, but in terms of $EV, how do you analyze this.

Assuming a Party SnG, 60% of the prize money has already been distributed. So the remaining three players will split the otehr 40%: 30-10-0

You're in the BB for a little more than 1/3 of your stack, getting about 2.7 to 1 on your call. You're behind any A and any pair, and you're crushed by any K (save one). I think you'd need at least 3 to 1 to consider calling here.

If you fold, I think you are probably least a 3 to 2 favorite to finish 2nd or higher. Even you win and knock out short stack, you'll still finish 2nd almost 2 out of 3 times, unless you think you're a far superior player to the big stack. I don't think the potential reward justifies the obvious risk.

[Jason Strasser]

Ok, I may be wrong, but this is how I look at it.

If you fold, and the other SS wins, you are going to get third most of the time. In the long run, this will happen 50% of the time. Assuming they both have mediocre hands, they will probably be in a coinflip spot most of the time.

So 50% third, 50% second by folding. Roughly. Thats (using 100 buy in) an avg of $250.

If you call, lets say you have a 20% chance of winning the hand, a 40% chance of losing to the big stack, and a 40% chance of losing to the small stack. (lets assume if u win the hand u have a 50% chance at first, 50% chance at second)

(.2)(400*) + (.4)300 + (.4)200 = 80 + 120 + 80 = $280

* = amount u make if u win the hand and win 50% of the time

Now this decision is close, but you could often be greater than a 20% favorite to win this hand on average. I think often you will be closer to 25%, maybe even approaching 30% in the long run.

I hope that explains my reasoning.

[ddubois]

Chip EV wise, there is no doubt this is correct. You are getting better than 3:1 on your call. So if your opponents showed QQ and JJ this would be absolutely correct

Two middle pairs is something of an optimistic scenario however. It's basically making an assumption that hero's king will be good, sans a set. A more common scenario is something like middle pair and overcard, where hero needs to both hit his king and dodge an ace, which drops his chances down to like 20%.

If they showed you AK and 33. Ok, fine, maybe u can let it go, but this is a call everyday for me.

This is a dramatized scenario of dominated K and middle pair, but it needn't be quite so dramatic to have a similarly crushing effect on hero's win rate. With merely KT and 77 he would be down under 10%. Ax and Kx would put hero around 15% win rate.

As it turns out, hero was in much-better-than-average shape with both opponents being on Ax, 32%ish, but I'm not sure 730:2314 is +chipEV over the range of two all-ins.

[imcastleman]

Folding:
Two situations:
You have 730, button has 1968, and BB has 5302 left. Call this A.
You have 730, button has 0, and BB has 7270 left. Call this B.

Calling:
Four situations:
You have 0, button has 0, and BB has 8000 left. Call this C.
You have 0, button has 2352, and BB has 5648 left. Call this D.
You have 3044, button has 0, and BB has 4956 left. Call this E.
You have 692, button has 2352, and BB has 4956 left. Call this F.

Assumptions here:
P(1st|A) = .05
P(2nd|A) = .15
P(3rd|A) = .8
P(1st|B) = .15
P(2nd|B) = .85
P(3rd|B) = 0

P(A) = .5
P(B) = .5
P(1st) = P(A)*P(1|A) + P(B)*P(1|B) = .5*.05 + .5*.15 = .025+.075 = .1
P(2nd) = P(A)*P(2|A) + P(B)*P(2|B) = .5*.15 + .5*.85 = .075 + .425 = .5
P(3rd) = P(A)*P(3|A) + P(B)*P(3|B) = .5*.8 + .5*0 = .4


P(1st|C) = 0
P(2nd|C) = 1
P(3rd|C) = 0
P(1st|D) = 0
P(2nd|D) = 0
P(3rd|D) = 1
P(1st|E) = .45
P(2nd|E) = .55
P(3rd|E) = 0
P(1st|F) = .05
P(2nd|F) = .15
P(3rd|F) = .8

If each event is equally likely, then
P(C) = .25
P(D) =.25
P(E) =.25
P(F) = .25

P(1st) = P(C)*P(1|C) + P(D)*P(1|D) + P(E)*P(1|E) + P(F)*P(1|F) = .25*(0+0+.45+.05) = .25*.5 = .125
P(2nd) = P(C)*P(2|C) + P(D)*P(2|D) + P(E)*P(2|E) + P(F)*P(2|F) = .25*(1+0+.55+.15) = .25*1.7 = .425
P(3rd) = P(C)*P(3|C) + P(D)*P(3|D) + P(E)*P(3|E) + P(F)*P(3|F) = .25*(0+1+0+.8) = .25*1.8 = .45

1st pays: 5
2nd pays: 3
3rd pays: 2

With the given assumptions, then the expected values for folding and calling are as follows:

EV(Folding) = 2.8
EV(Calling) = 2.8.

Since I do not believe you are ahead of either the small blind nor the button, then I think you should fold this every time. The expected value on calling will only go up if you are in the lead of one or the other and the expected value of folding goes up if the small blind is ahead of the button which I also think is likely. So, I believe you must fold here.

[slogger]

It does, but when you consider that you no better than 40% likely to win even after winning that hand, then I think you see one of the reasons why I think the fold is correct (that, and I think SB will be better than a coinflip more often than the other way around).

Thanks for the follow-up!

[Jason Strasser]

I guess I will back off this a little. I make this call every time, but it is close. The "bad" advice I was referring to before was some of the justifications for folding which seemed absurd.

Goot post.

[fnord_too]

I like this analysis. I'm not totally convinced yet but...

There is a good possibility that both players have an ace only (at this stage a ace is huge), or one has a small pair and the other an ace. Against the two actual hands, I win 31.5% of the time, with the SS winning 22.9% of the time. With me not there the SS only wins like 29%, but if the cards are the other way around I cut 18% off his chance of survival.

Say Im facing A8o and 77, then 77 is a 57 to 43 favorite without me, with me it's A8 35.4%, K3 23.5%, 77 41.1%.

All this suggests that getting out of the way may be a lot better than I originally thought. This is a much richer problem than I originally thought, thanks for all the great posts!