Paradise 2/4: Riding with JJ through an expensive, multiway pot.

[chesspain]

Paradise Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed)

Decent table, with a few fishes, although none of them are in this hand. I don't have any reads on these three opponents, two of whom are fairly new to the table.

Preflop: chesspain is Button with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP3 3-bets</font>, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, chesspain calls, SB calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 caps</font>, MP3 calls, chesspain calls, SB calls.

Flop: (17 SB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">chesspain 3-bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">SB caps</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls, chesspain calls.

Turn: (16.50 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 raises (All-in)</font>, MP3 folds, chesspain calls, SB calls.

River: (21.75 BB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, chesspain calls.

Final Pot: 23.75 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 23.75 BB, between chesspain, SB and MP3.</font>

[joker122]

You have an easy fold preflop.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
You have an easy fold preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know you're the joker...but I assume you're joking, especially with the openraiser being fairly short-stacked?

[joker122]

This is no joke. It's pretty standard pre flop play to muck JJ when it's 2 to you. Check out the preflop section of HEPFAP if you won't take my word for it.

[sthief09]

I cap preflop, but that's highly debateable, and doesn't matter so much.


but look at SB's action. he cold-called preflop. then he bet, and capped the flop after all that action. then he bets the turn. this wreaks of set to me. I think you can fold the turn. I realize that UTG+1 might just be stacking off, but unless SB is a complete maniac, he has you beat


on the turn you're getting 19.5-2 with a highly likely raise from SB behind you.

(all these calculations assume that SB won't 3-bet behind you, which is a terrible assumption, and that the side pot doesn't really matter, since it really doesn't matter much since it'll be so small by the end)

When you river a set (4.3%), you'll win 21.5 BB (assuming he bets and calls your raise)... the equity is .934
When you call down and don't hit a set, you'll lose 3 BB when you're behind and win 20.5 when you're ahead... so you'll lose (3)(.957)(chances you're behind), or win (20.5)(.957)(chances you win)

if x is the chances you're ahead, then your EV for the play is

.934 + (20.5)(.957)(x) - (3)(.957)(1-x)

for this to be EV-neutral, you'll have to beat BOTH of your opponents x = 8.6% of the time. I don't think this is the case, and that's not even considering that SB could 3-bet behind you here.


EDIT: now that I look at the hand again, I feel like folding the flop might even be best.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
This is no joke. It's pretty standard pre flop play to muck JJ when it's 2 to you. Check out the preflop section of HEPFAP if you won't take my word for it.

[/ QUOTE ]

in a game where your opponents are bad, there's no way you should be folding preflop. everyone refers to HPFAP like it's the bible, when in fact the book doesn't even refer to our games. the book is great because it teaches concepts that are important, but if you can't apply then to the game you're playing, it's worthless. I can say with a somewhat high degree of certainty that folding JJ here is very bad. as chesspain mentioned, UTG+1 being almost all-in makes it even more appealing. I think the only debate here is whether to cap it or just call.

and you KNOW I feel sure of this, because I like arguing with chesspain and I'd never agree with him unless I really meant it /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[joker122]

The fact that this advice is given in HEPFAP is not my only, or even my primary justification for folding JJ for 2 bets preflop. The advice is offered on this forum routinely.

[adanthar]

Other advice offered on this forum routinely involves 3 betting 99-TT and often AQo. Notice the implication...

I might fold it from the SB facing 3 or 4 bets. On the button, I lean towards capping. It also makes playing it a lot easier; when it's 2 back to me here, I can either 3 bet/fold the turn unimproved or just fold the flop outright. If they check or its one bet to me, it's a much easier raise/calldown.

[chesspain]

UTG+1 (All-in guy) showed 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif
SB showed 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif T /images/graemlins/heart.gif for the flopped two-pair, and HHIG.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]

EDIT: now that I look at the hand again, I feel like folding the flop might even be best.

[/ QUOTE ]

This would seem like a rather weak play, especially since I underrepresented my hand somewhat by not capping preflop. Since I'm on the button, I have to assume that I may face a bet and a raise before it gets to me on the flop, regardless of the cards which come. Indeed, if I'm going to fold this all-undercard flop when it's two bets to me, I might as well just fold it preflop.

[Kevroc]

8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif T /images/graemlins/heart.gif ugh

[Gramps]

Folding JJ to a short-stack raise, followed by an isolation 3-bet, would be horrible, IMO (absent some specific read). Each player could have a pretty wide range of hands here, you have the 4th best starting hand, and you have position.

HEFAP's advice on playing JJ preflop is for a different game than the ones that exists online and in most card rooms...as advised by many people on these forums (including NPAEM), you should play JJ differently preflop than advocated in there.

[Haupt_234]

[ QUOTE ]
I know you're the joker...but I assume you're joking, especially with the openraiser being fairly short-stacked?


[/ QUOTE ]

It is a cap or fold situation preflop, not a call. I would lean towards folding in this situation and would do so 80-85% of the time. You are a coin flip leader, at best.

Haupt_234

[joker122]

Can you tell me why playing JJ after a raise and a reraise is correct other than just saying HEPFAP wasn't written for these games?

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
Can you tell me why playing JJ after a raise and a reraise is correct other than just saying HEPFAP wasn't written for these games?

[/ QUOTE ]

You have the 4th best starting hand, you have position, and there's a good chance you have the best starting hand (to go along with your position) on everyone. There's a chance that MP 3-bettor (or even the original raiser) has an overpair, but MP3's 3-bet of a short stack could also mean a lower pair, AK, AQ, a worse Ace, KQ, some other sketchy hand, etc. The point in folding JJ to a raise and reraise is (as I understand it) that you're likely up against an overpair (Tight passive games). I don't see that here.

If I had pokertracker stats on either player and I had them for a PFR% of, say, 1%...I'd instamuck with no callers in between. Against typical players, I think it's a weak fold in a spot where you're often going to have the best hand and position.

The "fold JJ to a raise and reraise before you" rule assumes that those actions indicate a strong likelihood that you're up against an overpair. That presumption, for the majority of games (or at least every live and online game I've ever played in) is incorrect. IMO, of course.

[joker122]

The thing is, I think there is a strong possibility of an overpair here. The typical LL player's preflop game can be classified as extremely loose, and very passive. After ~22,000 hands at 2/4 I have the avg. VP$IP at 38% and a pfr% of 5.31%. 5.31% is pretty alarming, and I think a 3bet here is an overpair often enough for a fold to be correct.
Also, I don't care if someone was short stacked...I realize it may be significant to this hand, but I'm talking about SOP here because I think that's what's important.

[Kevroc]

Wouldn't you think that the MP 3-bet is an isolation attempt and not a big pair. I would think that he's hurting himself if he had big pair because he could only collect from the short stack.

Side Note: When I don't have a read on someone I don't automatically respect their raises. But, thats just me and god knows I'm no pro. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Haupt_234]

[ QUOTE ]
I would think that he's hurting himself if he had big pair because he could only collect from the short stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

So we should all just call with aces?

[ QUOTE ]
When I don't have a read on someone I don't automatically respect their raises.

[/ QUOTE ]

You should respect them more.

Haupt_234

[Kevroc]

[ QUOTE ]
So we should all just call with aces?

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh no! But, maybe in instances like this? Just an opinion in this rare circumstance.

[ QUOTE ]
You should respect them more

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not gonna automatically assume they are solid players without any info. Not saying I call all time just not gonna head for the hills at first sign of gunfire.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I know you're the joker...but I assume you're joking, especially with the openraiser being fairly short-stacked?


[/ QUOTE ]

It is a cap or fold situation preflop, not a call. I would lean towards folding in this situation and would do so 80-85% of the time. You are a coin flip leader, at best.

Haupt_234

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is it cap or fold? There are some who think it's O.K. to not cap here, in part so that you can see if the openraiser calls or caps.

In addition, I don't know if I agree that I'm a "coin flip leader, at best." UTG+1 could easily have AQ/AK/KQ or any mid-high pocket pair, whereas this possible isolation three-bet could easily be AK (or worse). Furthermore, with my likely getting at least 2.5:1 on my call, I would be thrilled to be a "coin-flip leader."

[citizenkn]

Without any read on the pre-flop raisers, I have to give credit to them for having decent hands, especially MP3. At that point I'm treading very carefully with JJ. Then the SB bets out against a pre-flop raiser and re-raiser? There's no way those jacks are any good. When it's two bets again back to me on the flop, I'm gone.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
Then the SB bets out against a pre-flop raiser and re-raiser? There's no way those jacks are any good. When it's two bets again back to me on the flop, I'm gone.

[/ QUOTE ]

One bet from the SB on that two-suit, undercard board and you assume JJ is no good? He could easily be betting AT, or a four-flush, or who-knows-what? Once UTG+1 only calls, I'm assuming that he doesn't even have a decent pair. Furthermore, I wasn't about to give MP3 credit for a monster for raising, since as the preflop reraiser he could still be raising on this board with AK or even TT.

Although my JJ may not be good, without any overcards having fallen on the flop I think that the pot is too big for me to be folding to a bet, call, and a predictable raise from the PF raiser.

[Haupt_234]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG+1 could easily have AQ/AK/KQ or any mid-high pocket pair, whereas this possible isolation three-bet could easily be AK (or worse).

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, that is a possibility. So is UTG+1 raising with KJ and the 3-bet could have AQs. I think you will find that the two hands, combined, are way ahead of JJ a majority of the time here. This is why I think it is an easy fold. Calling the 3-bet to "see what the raiser has" is a long stretch, and I think calling 2 cold with JJ and being forced to call down is a mistake which can be easily prevented.

Fold.

Haupt_234

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Why is it cap or fold? There are some who think it's O.K. to not cap here, in part so that you can see if the openraiser calls or caps.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not really interested in what he does, though. What I'd like to see is what happens if I cap it and an ace, king, or three random blanks hit the flop.

Look at it this way: If he caps it, he'll lead on any flop. If he doesn't, the 3 bettor will lead on any flop, which makes me have to raise into somebody who might be check 3 betting (and I do have to raise, because the 3 bettor may have tens and I want to fold the scared QQ behind him.) Certainly, the flop 3 bettor is going to 3 bet my raise with anything...and before all is said and done, I'm out 3 bets on the flop without the best hand, minimum.

No, what I want to see is what they do if the flop's scary/non-scary and I capped. If it's 2 to me and it's scary, I can fold. If it's 1, I can raise and anything short of aces will call and check to me on the turn (perfect.) If they check to me and the flop is 8 high, well, I'm set (unless one CR's, in which case I'm seeing all 5 cards for the same price as the flop when I don't cap.)

I admit it's tricky and somewhat marginal, but I'd rather take initiative on this particular hand here. The button makes so much difference that I can actually afford it.

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
So is UTG+1 raising with KJ and the 3-bet could have AQs. I think you will find that the two hands, combined, are way ahead of JJ a majority of the time here. This is why I think it is an easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not an issue of whether the combined hands are "way ahead a majority of the time." Even in the above AQs/KJ scenario (unfavorable to JJ because a Jack is in another player's hand), you're still going to win roughly 1/3 of the time according to twodimes.net, and you have position - you can probably extract more $$ when you're ahead, and lose less $$ when you're behind. If you're up against AK and an underpair, or AK/AQ, AK/KQ, etc. you're going to be good at least 40% of the time. When you're up against an overpair, you'll be good around 20% of the time. What ever the average of the combined probabilities adds up to be, I'd argue it's at least very close to 1/3. Given that you have position on these players, can gain information from their actions postflop (to get away from your hand if it's unfavorable, or extract more $$ from them if it is favorable), I think the call is fine.

It may turn out to be an "uncomfortable" hand to play postflop, but that doesn't mean it's "unprofitable" in this situation. So it's a raggedy board, you raise the flop, get 3-bet, and call down to see an overpair. Sh-t happens, next hand. Other times your hand will be good on that raggedy board, or you'll flop trips and get mad action. Or an Ace or King will flop, it'll go bet/call or bet/raise and you fold. No worries, your small short term investment didn't pan out, next hand.

[themul56]

In that situation online I would always cap unless I knew something about wither of them and then I would fold. i agree that the short stack player probably doesn't have ayou beat, he could but i would not ever assume that. And the reraise could definately be an isolation raise with a decent hand but not better than JJ. I would definately feel good about me cap here and if you don't likethe flop you can fold if you want and might evenget checked to even with an A on the flop.

After seeing the results, maybe the SB woulda folded 3.5sb to him, maybe but maybe not and your hand woulda been good.

[Michael Davis]

The implication is not that you should play JJ just because someone threebets with 99, TT, and AQo. Although you would play it in more situations against these folks than a tight threebettor, the fact that they sometimes raise with hands that you beat does not make it correct to call three cold with JJ.

In this situation, BTW, chesspain should not fold JJ, and UTG+1 being shortstacked is a MAJOR factor in his decision.

-Michael

[Michael Davis]

This SB called 2.5 bets with T8s. You have the odds to call the whole way with JJ if you know what he is. Combined with the fact that he is obviously a complete tool and you will often have him beat, folding is bad.

-Michael

[GuyOnTilt]

Hey Chesspain,

Preflop: If either of the players is a little loose and aggressive, I cap preflop. If not, I fold. The EP player's short-stack doesn't factor in here for me unless he's only got a couple bets in front. Six bets is enough for me to not really consider it.

Flop: Whatev.

Turn: If the EP and SB are a bit loose/aggressive, I call. If not, then I muck.

Put this stuff in your original post. It makes all the difference in your close decisions. Usually the lack of this kind of info means you're not factoring it into your decisions at the table or aren't thinking about it at all, neither of which are good.

GoT

PS. I'm drunk. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif